This morning's sharp surge was indeed a classic setup by institutions to hunt shorts. On-chain monitoring shows a mysterious wallet accumulated 11,147 ETH (about 39.97 million USD) through Galaxy Digital within 24 hours, specifically targeting times of weak liquidity in the early morning, instantly triggering the stop-loss zone above 3800, leading to 54.78 billion USD in liquidations across the network within 24 hours—this bull-bear struggle has become a bloody battlefield.
The current market hides hidden worries: price rises with volume shrinking + RSI approaching 75, MACD red bars shortening, resembling the pattern before last May's crash, and following retail investors could become high-position fuel.
The bulls and bears battle at 3987: break and soar, fail and deeply adjust.
The bulls and bears are repeatedly fighting at 3700, but the real lifeline is at 3987 USD. There has been a backlog of trapped positions for nearly three years here; if a breakout occurs with volume, it will trigger a short squeeze, pushing the market directly to 4100+; otherwise, it may retest the strong support at 3434.
Three key signals determine the direction:
BlackRock ETF fund flow: 2.2 billion USD frenzy in a single week; if the growth rate slows down, it may trigger selling pressure.
Exchange reserves: ETH continues to flow out, and spot liquidity is tightening.
ACDE Meeting: If the EIP7907 proposal is rejected tonight, it could become a catalyst for a short-term rally.
The win-win game of institutions: The arbitrage perpetual motion machine.
Institutional tactics are far more sophisticated than retail investors. Take the 'Crypto Micro Strategy' SharpLink as an example: accumulating 358,000 ETH at an average price of 2825 USD, with an unrealized gain of 260 million USD, while adding positions through collateralized lending, simultaneously benefiting from both ETF premiums and staking rewards. If BlackRock's staking ETF is approved, annualized returns could increase by another 5%.
In contrast, retail investors who chased highs at 3800 last year have yet to break even, while institutions have been arbitraging annualized 10.5% on perpetual contract funding rates—this is not a bull market but structured harvesting targeting retail investors.
Today's strategy: Golden pit and stop-loss line.
Aggressive faction: Ambush long positions at 3610, betting on Fibonacci support rebound.
Conservative faction: Break 3900 to chase the rise, betting on the initiation of a short squeeze.
Break position alert: retreat across the board if it falls below 3600; the golden pit is at the institutional cost line of 3530-3570.
Want to know where to stop losses? Pay attention to convergence; the top convergence team is waiting for your participation.
The dark forest rule is activated: ETH charging towards 4000 is a game of human nature—retail investors look at prices, institutions calculate staking, and whales focus on liquidations. If tonight's ACDE meeting surprises, the 3800 bulls will instantly turn against; if a black swan strikes, 56 billion USD in open contracts will trigger an avalanche.
Pay attention to the convergence; at 20:30 tonight, we will dissect the positions of the whales.
"Losing money in a bull market happens faster than in a bear market, simply because you can't tell who the prey is."
