Key position: Keep a close eye on these two price lines
Upper life-and-death gate (188-190 USD)
Currently, SOL is repeatedly testing at 186 USD, making its third attempt to hit the upper resistance of the rising wedge (188 USD). In the past two weeks, it has been rejected three times here, making it a 'bull-bear meat grinder' - a breakout on volume could trigger a rebound, with the first target directly at 200 USD, and the second target at 212 USD.
Key signal: If the 1-hour candlestick closes solidly above 188 USD, and a single minute sees over 5000 SOL large orders being swept, that is a total bullish signal.
Lower defense zone (175 USD)
175 USD is a dual defense line of technical and psychological levels:
Technical perspective: Wedge lower edge + Super trend indicator support, if broken may slide towards 166 USD (20-day moving average) or even 159 USD (50-day moving average);
Sentiment perspective: Breaking levels will trigger programmatic selling, the 6.35% drop in SOL on July 19 has proven this area is sensitive.
Bull-bear game: Data hides secrets
Bullish ammunition
Derivatives frenzy: Open interest surged 9.5% in 24 hours (over 10 billion USD), options trading volume increased by 143%, large funds betting on a breakout;
Indicator resonance: 30-minute chart shows RSI bottom divergence + MACD golden cross, 4-hour OBV rising in sync, buying pressure remains strong.
Bearish killer move
SEC regulation countdown: Ruling at the end of July on 'whether SOL is a security', some institutions are reducing positions in advance to hedge risks, SOL reserves on exchanges increased by 18% in a week;
Volume concerns: If volume shrinks over 30% when hitting 188 USD, it could form a 'false breakout', going short would be safer.
Today's operations: Three strategies to respond to volatility
Breakout chasing longs:
Wait for the 1-hour candlestick to stabilize above 188 USD, if it retraces to 185 and doesn't break, then enter the market;
Target 195→200 USD, stop loss at 182 (to guard against false breakouts).
Retracement ambush:
Stabilized at 175 (15-minute RSI<30), enter longs in batches;
Target 182 USD, stop loss at 172.
Hedging insurance:
Spot holders buy this week's 190 USD put options (premium 3%-5%), to hedge against a black swan crash.
Risk warning: Avoid stepping on two major landmines
20:30 US PPI data: If inflation exceeds expectations, it may crash the crypto market, causing SOL to dive;
On-chain anomaly: Whales transferring coins to exchanges (>100,000 SOL) are often a precursor to a crash, need to pay attention to convergence to monitor in real-time.
Personal view: My practical case
Last week ambushed longs at 175 USD, took 10% profit after a wave, but today do not be greedy!
Why be cautious? SOL's main force has been 'hesitant' recently. Although there are positive factors (Dubai cooperation + 90% ETF expectation), large funds are reluctant to go all in before the SEC ruling;
Real lesson: When it broke 175 on July 19, holding firm resulted in an 8% loss in a single day - must recognize failure when breaking key levels!
If tonight's SEC ruling is favorable, SOL could surge by over 20%; if unfavorable, the 160 defense line may collapse...
Should you add to your position or cut losses? The answer lies in the movements of on-chain whales + signals from the options dark pool!
Last question: Are you willing to be a lifelong 'leek', or the next 'convergence'? - When choosing, the candlestick is staring at you.
