#鲍威尔谈话后市场调整降息预期
According to The Wall Street Journal's renowned reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent,' informed sources revealed that U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent recently privately explained to President Trump the reasons why he should not attempt to remove Federal Reserve Chair Powell.
Bessent's reasons for opposing conflicts in Powell's final ten months in office center around several points: the potential impact on the economy and markets, the fact that the Federal Reserve has already signaled interest rate cuts this year, and the political and legal obstacles that such a move would face.
An informed source stated that Bessent emphasized to Trump that the current economic performance is good, and the market is responding positively to his policies, making it unnecessary to remove Powell at this time. He further reminded the president that Federal Reserve officials have hinted at possible interest rate cuts twice before the end of the year.
Although rumors of Trump's attempt to dismiss Powell have circulated for months, the situation escalated again last week. The president has repeatedly complained that the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates to alleviate federal debt pressure, and last Wednesday, a senior White House official disclosed to the media that Trump mentioned the possibility of dismissing Powell at a recent Republican congressional meeting. However, later that day, Trump denied this plan to reporters.
This turmoil briefly stirred the financial markets. Investors are concerned that replacing central bank officials due to policy differences will erode the Federal Reserve's independence and undermine its authority to maintain low inflation through unpopular decisions when necessary.
(The Wall Street Journal) reported in April that when Trump publicly discussed 'terminating' Powell's position, both Bessent and Commerce Secretary Ross advised the president against acting impulsively. In this latest confrontation, Bessent warned Trump: if Powell is removed early, he might file a lawsuit, and the case could drag on until next spring—when Powell's term is already nearing its end.
Some advisors in the president's inner circle acknowledge that even if Powell does not resort to legal action, a forced removal could lead to a leadership vacuum—due to the uncertainty of the normally August-recess Senate being able to quickly confirm a successor. If Powell is removed against the opposition of Republican senators, any confirmation process for a successor will be extremely difficult.
According to current law, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will assume the position in the absence of the Chair; he is an ally of Powell appointed by Biden.
These advisors admit that the market's reaction and procedural obstacles may put Trump in a 'lose-lose' situation: the government would have to bear the costs of market turmoil but would not be able to immediately control monetary policy.
Bessent also pointed out to the president that the timing for influencing the Federal Reserve's personnel layout is now ripe—Governor Adriana Kugler's term will end in January next year, and Powell's chair term will expire in May next year, meaning Trump will have at least one vacancy to fill early next year.
The White House spokesperson stated that Trump 'will nominate the best candidate to reshape the Federal Reserve's capability, credibility, and accountability.' As the president recently reiterated the call to remove Powell, government officials have launched a new offensive under the pretext of 'cost overruns on the renovation of two historic buildings at headquarters.' The Federal Reserve blames the cost overruns on rising material prices and unexpected construction issues.
Although some senators have called for Powell to resign, at least three Republicans on the Senate Banking Committee have clearly opposed his removal. Majority Leader John Thune stated to Fox News last Wednesday: 'The markets need an independent Federal Reserve.'
Bessent's cautious stance contrasts sharply with the radical faction within the government. White House budget director Russell Vought is leading efforts to push for 'for cause' dismissals based on 'building overruns,' attempting to evade legal protections.
As part of the pressure campaign, Trump recently appointed three advisors (including Vought's direct subordinate) to the local planning commission, which approved the Federal Reserve's design plan in 2021. These advisors threatened to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve's engineering and financial decisions.
Deputy Chief of Staff James Blair stated last Friday that the Federal Reserve proposed to schedule a site inspection last Friday evening, but due to a scheduling conflict, it was requested to be postponed to this week. Vought did not clearly state whether this pressure campaign would serve as a prelude to a 'for cause' dismissal that circumvents the latest Supreme Court ruling.
Bessent indicated last week that the succession process for the Federal Reserve Chair has begun. Kevin Hassett, a senior economic advisor close to Trump, is widely seen as the top candidate. According to previous reports from The Wall Street Journal, Trump is considering announcing his nominee before September—locking in a successor early would satisfy his influence over interest rate policy while avoiding the chaos caused by removing Powell.
"There are many excellent candidates; the speed of progress depends on President Trump's decision," Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. Some insiders revealed that recently, advisors have suggested broadening the candidate pool (including undisclosed potential candidates) to ensure more agents can publicly pressure the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Trump: I don't need anyone to explain the pros and cons of firing Powell to me.
Last Sunday, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform in response to The Wall Street Journal's report, stating that he does not need Bessent to explain to him how firing Powell would be detrimental to the market.
Trump wrote, '(The Wall Street Journal) published a typical false report stating that Bessent explained to me that firing the worst Federal Reserve Chair in history, 'Mr. Too Late' Powell, would be detrimental to the market. I don't need anyone to explain this to me. I know better than anyone what is good for the market and what is good for America. If it weren't for me, the stock market would not be hitting all-time highs right now; it might have already collapsed! So, make sure to get the real information. I do not need others to explain things to me; instead, I explain it to them!'
Trump's recent remarks were loaded with information, as he publicly challenged The Wall Street Journal, labeling Powell as 'Mr. Too Late,' expressing dissatisfaction with the current Federal Reserve Chair. This is not just a casual remark; such statements are a preemptive signal to the market: 'When I take office, Powell will definitely have to pack his bags and leave.' Once this happens, the entire rate hike cycle will be reshuffled, and the dollar interest rate expectations will need to be re-priced—this is undoubtedly a positive bombshell for Bitcoin and crypto assets.
Why? Powell has always represented the rate hike faction, suppressing the entire high-risk asset market. If he is replaced, the new chair is likely to be someone whom Trump trusts more and who adopts a looser monetary policy. In this context, large funds will have to start reassessing dollar liquidity, risk aversion will weaken, risk appetite will rise, and crypto assets will naturally benefit. It can be said that if Trump wins and ousts Powell, the crypto sector may welcome a 'rate hike apocalypse' narrative. The market is still in the foreplay phase, but the main storyline is already being laid out.
Secondly, in this statement, Trump tightly binds the narrative of 'the stock market's rise is his achievement' to himself, indirectly sending a message to Wall Street: 'I am your god; I will make the market stronger.' This rhetoric is also a hidden boon for Bitcoin, as the stock market and BTC are highly correlated. The more Trump emphasizes economic prosperity and market peaks, the more he needs a loose, even inflationary financial environment, and the crypto sector is the first beneficiary in such an environment.
Ultimately, this statement is not only a response to The Wall Street Journal but also sets market expectations and lays potential traps. While the traditional financial sector is still debating when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, Trump is already pushing the narrative of 'changing the chairperson.' Once sentiments materialize, the crypto sector is likely to experience another wave of 'rise first, discuss later' market trends.
In summary, this is not just idle talk; it is a highly politicized rehearsal of monetary policy. The crypto sector can afford to remain inactive for now, but sentiments should be primed in advance, as the real spectacle will be the moment Trump strikes the Federal Reserve. Paying attention to such statements is about laying out the core clues for a bull market in advance; it is not just about watching from the sidelines, but about getting a head start.