$BTC Bitcoin closed, if it doesn't hold 118 today, it is highly likely to drop later, with support levels at 115001 and 113768.
Altcoins are still relatively strong, the altcoin season index has risen from 20 to 53, and if it reaches 75-90, it will be about done.
This time, the overall increase in altcoins is not as much as in November-December last year when Trump was successfully elected.
The altcoin season index can indicate Bitcoin's fluctuations while the altcoin rise index increases. It can also show that when Bitcoin drops, altcoins may drop less while the index rises.
Why is the rise of altcoins getting smaller, but the altcoin season index can still go up? The main reason is that there are too many altcoins now, going from dozens to hundreds, and now tens of thousands and even hundreds of thousands. A slight rise across the board naturally pushes the index up, and a slightly larger rise boosts it even more.
In my understanding, apart from a few coins that might surge crazily, most will drop alongside Bitcoin when it falls. Sometimes, when Bitcoin drops slightly for a day or two, altcoins can hold steady, but when Bitcoin accelerates downwards, altcoins will pull liquidity and start to drop.
For those who have read my previous articles, you should know how to judge when altcoins begin to pull liquidity if the decline accelerates. I remember one time during a live stream when we encountered altcoins pulling liquidity, and the drop was dramatic.
Regarding $ETH above 3955-4100, a triple top, a significant amount of capital is needed to break through and withstand selling pressure. Last time, with the Ethereum ETF passing through institutional buying, many retail investors bought Ethereum around 4000. This time, the ETF bought aggressively, causing a rise, but compared to before, it is noticeably weaker. Buying Ethereum at the bottom surely made money, but with Ethereum's volatile movement, 2100, 4000, 2100, 4000, 1400, 4000, this is more suitable for swing trading, making a double in one swing is quite comfortable. Holding long-term is like riding a roller coaster.