Key conclusion: Stabilizing at $3800 = Aiming for $6000, Losing $3000 = Pullback to $2200
🚀 1. Weekly structure: 3-year big triangle finally breaks through!
- Central pressure relieved: Ethereum in a large triangle oscillation between $2200-$3800 from 2012-2025, July breakout above $3500 confirmed entry into the 'Chande theory departure phase' (uptrend)!
- Hidden danger signals: MACD bars narrowing + RSI overbought (70+), new highs without volume = top divergence risk!
> ✅ Long-short life line: $3500 (previous resistance turns support), $3000 (bull-bear boundary)
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📈 2. Three major scenarios for the second half of 2025 (with probabilities)
1. 🚁 Bull market acceleration (50%)
→ Conditions: Weekly closes above $3800 + ETH/BTC exchange rate breaks 0.06
→ Target: $4500 (August) → $6000 (end of year)
→ Catalyst: Ethereum ETF approved, Layer2 staking rate > 50%
2. 🔄 High-level oscillation (30%)
→ Conditions: Repeated divergence between $3300-$3800 + surge in exchange ETH reserves
→ Strategy: Swing trading, add position on pullback to $2900
3. ⚠️ Deep correction (20%)
→ Conditions: Losing $3000 + whale daily outflow > 50,000 ETH
→ Defense point: $2200 (ultimate support at the lower central line)
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💡 3. Must-see operation guide for retail investors
| Strategy | Entry point | Stop loss | Target |
| Breakthrough long $3560-$3580 Long |$3480 Stop loss | $3950→$4500 target |
| Divergence short | $3690-$3720 Short | $3780 Stop loss | $3500→$3300 target |
| Long-term regular investment | $3000-$3300 in batches | Target $6000+
> ✨ Golden combination: Hold ETH + allocate BTC (hedge against blood-sucking effect)
⚠️ 4. Explosive points and danger zones for the second half of the year
- Policy bomb: US (GENIUS Act) implemented → Institutional funds influx!
- On-chain alert: Gas fees plummeting 90% + 95% of addresses in profit → Profit taking pressure!
- Currency war: ETH/BTC > 0.06 → Altcoin season starts!
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💎 Ultimate conclusion: Keep an eye on three signals
1. Weekly MACD turns red again → Bull market confirmed
2. Effective breakthrough at $3800 → Increase position!
3. Daily top divergence + whale activity → Get out quickly!
> 🌐 Real-time monitoring of on-chain data: Santiment (whale addresses), Glassnode (exchange reserves)
Forward reminder: August is the decisive month for trends!
