In May 2021, ETH surged to an all-time high of $4891, becoming a flagbearer for the crypto market. However, by mid-2025, when the market attempts to challenge the $4000 mark again, everyone can't help but ask: Has the peak of Ethereum really arrived, or is it still yet to come?

I. Macro Environment Supports Mid-term Rise

The current macroeconomic environment is relatively friendly to risk assets. The Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, liquidity is gradually being released, and market expectations for interest rate cuts are becoming increasingly strong. This directly benefits the crypto market, especially mainstream assets like Ethereum.

Moreover, with the advancement of ETF products and the acceleration of institutional compliance layouts, Ethereum's narrative is no longer just about 'speculative concepts', but rather 'asset allocation'. An increasing number of traditional capital is beginning to view ETH as 'digital oil', with its network effects and ecological stickiness being hard to ignore.

II. Technical Analysis: Multiple breakthroughs have failed to effectively stabilize above $4000.

From a technical perspective, Ethereum has repeatedly tested the $3900-4000 range recently, showing a clear strong pressure zone. Each time after a high, the pullback is accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that a large number of profit-taking orders are being executed in this area.

Does this mean the peak is imminent? Not necessarily.

Unlike in 2021, this round of increases is primarily driven by ecological development and capital acceptance, rather than purely by retail investor sentiment. In other words, the 'funding structure' is healthier, and the fundamentals are stronger.

III. The narrative logic has not yet fully materialized.

The narrative of Ethereum's future is far from over. Whether it's the large-scale adoption of Layer 2, Account Abstraction enhancing user experience, or the new demands brought by the integration of AI and blockchain, Ethereum stands at the core.

In addition, it is expected that by the end of 2025 to the first half of 2026, upgrade proposals like EIP-7682 will continue to enhance the efficiency and security of the Ethereum network, which are potential medium to long-term positives.

IV. Market Sentiment and Risks

Of course, risks remain. These include the increasing dominance of Bitcoin, the erosion of mainnet gas fee revenues by some Layer 2 solutions, and potential macroeconomic events that could impact ETH's upward potential. Additionally, whether ETH can successfully detach from being a 'high Beta asset' and become a 'digital bond' still requires time to verify.

V. Conclusion: The peak has not yet arrived, but $4000 remains a key battlefield.

Given the current situation, we can make the following judgment:

In the short term, $4000 remains a strong resistance level, and frequent testing indicates that the possibility of a breakthrough is increasing.

The mid-term (next 6-12 months) target can be seen in the $4500-5200 range, especially if the ETH spot ETF is officially released, which could lead to a liquidity explosion.

The long-term peak may not be a specific price point, but rather a critical point of comprehensive ecological penetration and deep integration with the real economy.

The peak of Ethereum may not be today or tomorrow, but its direction is clear.