Last week was perhaps one of the most exciting times for the XRP investor community as this cryptocurrency reached a new ATH (All-Time High) of 3.66 USD, marking an impressive milestone after a long period of fluctuation. However, the question arises: What awaits XRP ahead? And is a price below 3 USD by the end of July feasible?

Current Situation: Strong Growth, but Selling Pressure Increases

Currently, XRP is trading around 3.49 USD, up 2.18% in the last 24 hours. However, the upward momentum has shown signs of slowing down in the last 2 days – a clear indicator that the upward trend is being constrained and a short-term correction is entirely possible.

XRP has increased more than 90% since the low in April and is currently in overbought territory, according to many technical indicators. This is a time when many investors may start to take profits, thereby creating significant selling pressure in the market.

Predictions from Polymarket

According to data from Polymarket – the decentralized prediction market platform:

  • 35% chance that XRP could reach 4 USD before the end of June (previous prediction, currently not happening).

  • 55% chance XRP will reach 3.7 USD before the end of July.

However, with the current price at 3.49 USD, an additional ~6% increase to reach the target of 3.7 USD requires new momentum, something that the market is currently uncertain about, especially in the context of rising selling pressure.

Factors That Could Trigger Price Increases

1. Ripple's RLUSD stablecoin

  • RLUSD – the stablecoin issued by Ripple, has recently been rated A by the credit rating agency Bluechip, which is the highest safety rating for a stablecoin.

  • The market cap of RLUSD has exceeded 527 million USD, indicating an increasing level of acceptance and trust in the Ripple ecosystem.

  • If RLUSD continues to grow, it could increase the demand for using XRP as part of the payment ecosystem, thereby pushing the price of XRP.

2. Expectations for XRP ETF

  • After the Ripple-SEC lawsuit concluded, the market began to look towards a new turning point: XRP ETF.

  • The first XRP ETF, ProShares Ultra XRP ETF, has launched, creating a positive effect on investors.

  • According to Polymarket, the chance that the XRP ETF is fully approved in 2025 is currently 86%, raising expectations that institutional capital will soon flow into XRP.

Volatility from Derivatives and Short-Term Decline Potential

  • Open interest (the total value of outstanding derivative contracts) has surged to over 10 billion USD, compared to under 4 billion USD just a month ago. This indicates a significant inflow of funds into the derivatives market – a potential sign of high volatility.

  • A short squeeze could occur if whales push the price up suddenly. However, short positions are increasing as many traders expect a correction after a hot streak.

  • Net spot inflow (actual purchases) increased by more than 125 million USD in the last 24 hours – one of the highest increases in 2025. This could be a move by whales to trigger a short squeeze.

Conclusion: Can XRP Drop Below 3 USD by the End of July?

It is possible. Although the long-term outlook for XRP remains positive due to the increasingly developing Ripple ecosystem and the potential from RLUSD and XRP ETF, in the short term, XRP is facing significant correction pressure. With:

  • Price in overbought territory

  • Short interest rising

  • Upward momentum is fading

… a correction below 3 USD could completely happen before the end of July, especially if there is no clear growth momentum in the next few days.

However, with demand rising and institutional interest, low prices may only exist for a short time, before a new upward trend is established.