ETH breaks $3750! An epic market begins, with $4000 just around the corner?
Historic breakthrough! $3750 opens a new chapter in the bull market.
In July 2025, Ethereum (ETH) thundered past the $3750 mark, with a daily increase of over 5%, marking a new high in nearly 18 months. This milestone breakthrough not only refreshes the technical ceiling but also ignites the passion of global investors—from DeFi developers to Wall Street institutions, everyone is witnessing the birth of a new era: Ethereum is transforming from a "smart contract platform" to a "global financial infrastructure."
At leading exchanges like Binance, the 24-hour trading volume of ETH surged to $48 billion. On-chain data shows that over $22 million in short positions were forcibly liquidated, and long positions completely crushed the shorts. Even more exciting is that the ETH/BTC ratio broke 0.03160, reaching a new high since 2025, with funds visibly flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum. Analysts assert: This is not an ordinary rebound, but an epic bull market driven by technology, capital, and faith.
Technical analysis: The bullish vehicle crushes resistance; $4000 is merely an appetizer.
From the technical chart perspective, the breakout of ETH has a textbook-perfect formation:
• Key resistance level broken: $3750 was a strong resistance level in December 2024. This breakthrough has completely shattered the 7-month consolidation pattern, with the next target aimed at $3780 (January 2025 high) and $3850 (Fibonacci 76.4% extension). If volume continues to increase, the $4000 mark may be breached before the end of July.
• Indicator resonance bullish: The daily RSI briefly entered overbought territory (71), but the weekly Stochastic RSI remains in a healthy range at 79, indicating that bullish momentum is far from exhausted. The MACD has formed a golden cross above the zero axis, with trading volume surging 210% compared to the previous week; the price-volume relationship is nearly perfect.
• On-chain data support: The inventory of ETH on exchanges has dropped to a 5-year low of only 13.2 million (11.3% of circulating supply), with supply tightening and large whales increasing their holdings, selling pressure has almost disappeared.
Bold prediction: If it breaks $3850, ETH will enter "the third wave of the bull market," targeting $4200 (the historical high of 2024) and even the institutional consensus price of $5000.
Fundamentals: Institutional frenzy + technological revolution, ETH's "threefold moat."
1. A torrent of funds: ETFs and corporate holdings build a steel Great Wall.
◦ Spot ETF records: In July 2025, ETH spot ETF inflows reached $900 million in a week, with an average daily trading volume of $5 billion, approaching the liquidity of gold ETFs (GLD). Giants like BlackRock and Fidelity are locking in arbitrage through basis trading, with their holdings rising to 16.7%.
◦ Corporate hoarding of coins: Nasdaq-listed company Sharplink has purchased 74,000 ETH (about $250 million) and staked 99.7% of its holdings, becoming the largest corporate holder of ETH globally. Mining companies like Bitmine are also rapidly increasing their holdings, and the narrative of "digital gold" is being rewritten.
1. Technological revolution: The Cancun upgrade ignites the Layer 2 super ecosystem.
◦ Gas fees drop by 90%: The upcoming Cancun upgrade will compress Layer 2 transaction costs to below $0.0002, and the daily trading volume for derivatives on Layer 2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism has exceeded $8.2 billion.
◦ DeFi and NFT rebirth: The explosion of Layer 2 has revived protocols like Uniswap V4 and Synthetix, with the NFT market weekly trading volume surpassing $450 million, and daily active users of the blockchain game Axie Infinity returning to one million.
1. Policy tailwind: Regulatory easing spurs a "compliant bull market."
◦ (GENIUS Act) implementation: The U.S. House of Representatives passed a stablecoin regulatory framework requiring all stablecoins to have 100% reserves and be audited based on the ETH chain, directly propelling the market cap of USDC over $120 billion, making ETH the underlying pillar of the "digital dollar."
◦ Support from Hong Kong and the EU: Hong Kong's (stablecoin regulations) were implemented in August, and the EU's MiCA framework classifies ETH as an "investable asset," accelerating the entry of global compliant funds.
Future outlook: From $3750 to $10000, this is ETH's decade.
Short term (1-3 months): $4000 is just an appetizer. If ETF funds continue to flow in and the Cancun upgrade goes smoothly, ETH may surge to $4800 in Q3 (the historical high of 2024).
Medium term (1-2 years): After the Layer 2 ecosystem matures, ETH on-chain revenue is expected to surpass $18 billion/year, targeting a price of $8500 based on a 30x PE valuation.
Long term (5-10 years): When ETH becomes the settlement layer for 5% of global cross-border payments (corresponding to a $150 trillion market), its market cap is expected to surpass gold, reaching $10 trillion, with a price exceeding $10000.
Bold prediction: As V God (Vitalik Buterin) said at Binance Blockchain Week, "Ethereum is not another blockchain, but the operating system of the next generation of the internet." When 7 billion people around the world need a "decentralized identity + financial account," the value of ETH will far exceed anyone's imagination.
Risk warning: A pullback is an opportunity to enter, not a trend reversal.
• Short-term volatility: If the outstanding derivatives contracts exceed $6 billion (currently $5.8 billion), it may trigger a technical pullback to $3620 (20-day moving average), but this is an excellent opportunity to increase positions.
• Regulatory black swan: If the SEC suddenly restricts ETH staking, it could trigger panic selling, but the probability is very low—after all, ETH has been recognized as a compliant asset by 23 countries globally.
• Position suggestions: Aggressive investors can go all-in on ETH, cautious investors should retain 30% of their positions to manage volatility, and long-term holders must stake ETH to earn 5% annualized returns.
Conclusion: The shout of $3750—an era for believers.
At the moment ETH broke through $3750, the live chat in the Binance room was flooded with "epic" and "the bull market is here," and the celebration from the global community even overshadowed news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. This is not just a victory of price but a declaration of war by decentralized finance against the traditional system.
In this era full of uncertainties, some fear fluctuations, some chase hot trends, but the true winners will always belong to those who dare to heavily invest in their beliefs at historical turning points. The current price of $3750 may just be the prologue to the magnificent market trends of the next decade. As Binance CEO Zhao Changpeng said, "When you look back at 2025 in the rearview mirror, you'll find today's ETH price is shockingly low."
Bold call: Hold on to your ETH, fasten your seatbelt; we are witnessing the birth of a new wealth myth!
(Note: This article represents the author's views and does not constitute investment advice. The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution.)
Data sources: Binance on-chain data, CoinGecko, Glassnode, Fundstrat research reports.
