๐ Current Situation & Market Sentiment
Price and Momentum: Ethereum is currently trading at around $3,712 and has gained about 4% in the last 24 hours. It has fluctuated between $3,540 down and $3,714 up.
Increased ETF Interest: US spot $ETH ETFs have seen a total inflow of $2 billion since July 4th, indicating growing U.S. investor interest.
Institutional Buying: Firms like BitMine have added millions of Ethereum to their balance sheets, indicating a growing demand for "smart money," or professional capital.
โ๏ธ Fundamental & On-Chain Indicators
MVRV and NUPL: #ETH is currently trading relatively low relative to its realized value; NUPL metrics are in "in-the-money" territoryโmeaning investors are turning a profit, which could reduce selling pressure.
Exchange Balance: The amount of ETH held by long-term investors on exchanges is decreasing. This increases the risk of a supply squeeze, supporting the price.
๐ง Technical Analysis
Moving averages: The 50-day MA (~2594USD) is above the 200-day MA (~2477USD)โa golden crossover formation is observed.
Bull flag formation: A bull flag formation has formed recently, increasing the likelihood of an upward breakout; the range between $3745 and $4900 is suggested as a target.
Support and resistance:
Current support: The $2940โ$2980 range is prominent.
Critical resistance: $3500โ$3550 has been broken, with the next barriers being the $3800 and $4000+ ranges.
๐ Short- and Medium-Term Probabilities
Short-term (1โ2 weeks): The uptrend is likely to continue; volatility may increase in the $3800โ$4000 range. Raised call option positions in the Derivatives world also support this expectation.
1โ3-month period: The $4,000โ$5,000 range could become a reasonable target. According to a CCN article, a potential $4,900 price level is possible "after a bull flag breakout."
Long-term (6 months โ year-end): Some analysts suggest that ETH could reach $5,000โ$10,000.
โ ๏ธ Risks & Warnings
Correction risk: Rapid increases often lead to corrections. Movements above $3,900โ$4,000, in particular, can create selling opportunities.
Regulatory uncertainty: The passage of the GENIUS and CLARITY laws could increase regulatory clarity; however, the course of the process could influence the priceโfor better or worse.
Macroeconomic factors: Fed policies, inflation developments, and global liquidity conditions could determine the direction of the ETH price.
โ Strategy Recommendations
Taking a Position: If you're new to ETH, the support zones around USD 3500โ3600 may offer suitable entry points.
Take-profit: Initial targets could be USD 4000โ4200; if strong momentum continues, USD 4900โ5000 could be considered.
Risk Management: It's important to protect capital against potential pullbacks by placing a stop-loss below the support level (e.g., USD 3400).
๐ฏ Summary
Term Outlook Expectation
Short-term bullish ETF inflows are supported by technical formations and rising momentum.
Medium-term: Potential bullish movement between USD 4000โ5000 is possible; positive on-chain dynamics continue.
Long-term: High potential: With institutional interest and regulatory clarity, the price could reach the USD 5000โ10000 range.
ETH is currently in a strong uptrend, and current technical and fundamental signals support this. However, volatility is always present, so a cautious strategy (stop-loss, staggered buy-sell) should be followed in times of extreme volatility.
#ETHBreaks3700 #ETHBreakout3.5k #AltcoinBreakout #AltcoinSeasonLoading