🚀 $ETH Rocket Reaches $3720 – FOMO or Bull Trap?
🔎 Quick Snapshot (20 Jul 2025):
• Price: $3721 (+4.8% in 24h)
• RSI: 86.8 (extremely overbought)
• Order Flow: Sell orders 3x buy orders
• Long/Short Ratio: Drops to 2.8 → short-term pullback likely
Key Levels & Structure
📊 High Volume Support:
• $3603-$3612 → first intraday support (900k ETH)
• Low Volume Gap (LVN): $3686-$3702 → ideal short entry zone
• Thin Area Above: $3702-$3719 → easy to pass quickly
• Value Anchor: POC $2974 (1.92M ETH) → still attractive long-term
---
📈 Market Cycle View
✅ Weekly: Breakout from 3-month box → main bullish phase
⚠️ Daily: First deleveraging (-7.1% long/short) after 7 green days → entering pull-up distribution zone, high-level fluctuations expected
---
💡 Trading Strategy
1. Aggressive Short:
• Entry: $3686-$3702
• Stop-loss: $3729
• Target: $3603 HVN
• Risk/Reward: 2.3
2. Conservative Long:
• Entry: $3603-$3612 (if 1h Up Volume >55%)
• Stop-loss: $3570
• Target: $3650 / $3686
• Risk/Reward: 2.0
3. Breakout Chase:
• Condition: 1h close >$3750 with volume +1.5x
• Target: $3800-$3850
• Stop-loss: $3720
---
⚠️ Risks
• Selling Pressure: 48.8M vs 16.1M buy orders → heavy short-term sell-side
• Liquidity Gaps: Weekend LVN slippage risk
• Invalidation:
– Longs stop-out if < $3603
– Shorts invalid if > $3750
• Position Sizing: ≤1% of equity, avoid high leverage
---
💎 Bottom Line:
ETH is at the upper Bollinger edge, entering a “pull-up distribution” zone. Wait for clear confirmations before aggressive plays. Discipline > FOMO.