In the past 24 hours, 1000 LUNC has still increased by 4.9% against a backdrop of a 2.6% reduction in contract positions, with the price close to the Bollinger upper band + RSI 83, clearly overbought in the short term; however, VPVR shows a large vacuum gap from 0.059-0.064 that has not been filled. If the price retraces to 0.064-0.063 high volume area without breaking, a long position can be taken with a target of 0.071-0.073; if it breaks 0.063, the bullish structure will be damaged, and immediate stop loss is required.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor (POC): 0.06352, maximum trading pile in 2 weeks, both bulls and bears will contest.
• High Volume Node HVN: 0.0630-0.0645, 0.0678-0.0687, strong buffer formed after multiple tests.
• Low Volume Node LVN: 0.059-0.060, 0.064-0.0658, price can easily traverse quickly.
• 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.0558-0.0690, current price is at the upper edge of the 91% percentile, short-term overbought.
Momentum Validation
• Up/Down Volume near POC ≈46 : 54, slightly bearish; but in the 0.067-0.068 HVN area, Up Volume accounts for 65%, bulls still control.
• Contract positions have decreased by 2.6% in 24h, but the long-short ratio has risen to 1.83, with the main force pulling up while reducing, beware of false longs.
Auxiliary Indicator
• 1h MA200 at 0.06407, deviating 7% overbought; Bollinger upper band at 0.06894, current price is already at the band.
• Funding rate 0.01% slight long payment, no overheating yet.
Market Cycle Judgment
In the stage of 'End of Mid-term Rebound + Short-term Overbought': 14-day positions increased by 38%, but have started to decline in 24h, matching the characteristics of a rebound top turnover.
Trading Strategy (15m-1h Framework)
1. Pullback Long (Conservative): Wait for price to drop to 0.0640-0.0635 HVN, enter when a long lower shadow or engulfing bullish pattern appears, and Up Volume >60%.
Entry at 0.0637, stop loss at 0.0628 (below HVN), target at 0.0710 (next HVN), risk-reward ratio 8.1:1.
2. Breakout Long (Aggressive): If the 1h closing price breaks out with volume above 0.0689 (Bollinger upper band), a retracement to 0.0685 that does not break can be chased, stop loss at 0.0677, target at 0.0730, risk-reward ratio 5.6:1.
3. Counter-Trend Short (Conservative): RSI Divergence + Breaking below 0.0630 POC, short near 0.0635 retracement, stop loss at 0.0642, target at 0.0605, risk-reward ratio 4:1.
Risk Control Reminder
• Key Failure: Losing 0.0630 will damage the bullish structure; need volume to increase ≥1.5 times the average for a breakout above 0.069, otherwise it's a false breakout.
• Position: Single risk ≤1% of account equity, use ATR≈0.001 to backtrack leverage.
• Time period: Avoid daily delivery fluctuations from 16:00 to 17:00.
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