📊 Market situation & notable news
• Recent token unlock (16/7/2025): 92.65 million ARB (~1.87% of total supply) was unlocked, causing short-term selling pressure likely leading to a correction of ~10–20%.
• AR and strong cash flow: Nevertheless, ARB still maintains support around $0.45 and has increased +16% after this event thanks to TVL rising to $2.5 billion.
• Strategic collaboration: Gemini has integrated tokenized stocks (Nike, McDonald’s, Starbucks) on Arbitrum since 15/7, opening up access to traditional financial markets in the EU.
• LatAm expansion: Hackathon events and Ambassador Program help increase users in Latin America 🟢
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📈 Technical analysis
• Support & Resistance:
• Strong support at ~$0.4518
• Resistance near $0.47–$0.49, failed breakout but RSI, MACD have not lost upward momentum.
• Momentum indicator:
• RSI ~+70, positive MACD => sentiment remains enthusiastic.
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💡 Effective trading strategy
1. Short-term trading
• Buy when the price tests the $0.45–$0.452 zone – where there is strong support.
• Take profits when the price tests the resistance zone $0.47–$0.49.
• Tight stop-loss below $0.44 to limit risk due to unlock pressure.
2. Swing trading
• If breakout is successful above $0.49 with high volume => potential to rise to around $0.55–$0.60.
• Monitor positive news from Gemini, LatAm, PayPal PYUSD, USND… if the capital flow continues, ARB could rise significantly.
3. Risk management
• Do not bet too heavily as the market is prone to volatility after unlock.
• Use stop-loss orders, adjust when there is a clear breakout.
• Always monitor volume & on-chain metrics – breakouts without high volume are likely to lead to false breaks.
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🔍 Conclusion
Arbitrum (ARB) is currently facing significant short-term volatility due to token unlock, but the long-term outlook remains bright thanks to the integration of real-world assets (tokenized stocks) & market expansion. A reasonable trading strategy is to take advantage of support zones for short-term buying, taking profits near resistance zones, while also setting stop-loss orders to protect capital. With a recovery above $0.49, the opportunity for further increase to $0.60 is very realistic.