As you all know, most participants judge the market by emotions — fear, greed, memes, and influencers. But we have maps that do not lie. On-chain is the traces left by money. And money rarely lies 🎙.
Looking at the metrics, I can say that significant overheating and euphoria are not observed, which can only indicate that the growth has just begun, and we are currently in the preparation phase for the next leap ⚙️.
➡️ The market is not overheated yet.
This week, the spot price of BTC on Binance remained higher than that of derivatives (futures). This means that the crowd is not leveraging. There is no euphoria. FOMO has not started. Historically, when derivatives began to hastily 'catch up' with spot (a positive spread appears) — a real parabola began 💪 Greed always connects later.
➡️ MVRV for short-term holders indicates: there is still growth potential.
The STH MVRV metric (market value to invested value ratio for short-term holders) is still below the overheating zone. ➡️ This means that BTC could rise another 20–25% before mass profit-taking begins.
In other words — the market is charged, but not yet firing. Confirmation of preparation, not finale.
➡️ The path to new highs remains open.
Most short-term indicators are cooled. This is rare at a time when BTC is updating its ATH. ➡️ Usually, at such moments, the market is already at its peak. Right now — it is not. This could fuel a breakthrough in Q3–Q4 2025.
➡️ Miners have started active selling.
Outflow from miners' wallets reached 16,000 BTC — the highest since April. Almost all the volume went to exchanges, indicating an intention to sell. Miners are rational players. They do not dump in panic. It’s more of a profit-taking on strength than panic on weakness.
However, such liquidity outflows can cause short-term corrections or provide fuel for shakeouts to knock out the crowd before the next impulse.
The market is not overheated. It is not speculative, but structural. We see not a spike, but a consolidation of energy. On-chain metrics do not show the final stage of the cycle — rather, a continued accumulation of positions before the next phase shift 📊 Yes, miners are selling. But they are doing it disciplined — on strength, not on fear.
