Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) continuously set new price peaks, creating a sense that the market is in a state of extreme excitement. However, just a few steps away from surpassing the $123,000 mark – a significant psychological milestone – the price unexpectedly adjusted. The question arises: What has prevented Bitcoin's next breakout? And does BTC still have a chance to reach the $143,000 region?
🐋 Movement of Satoshi-era Whales – Increased Selling Pressure
On July 17, a wallet identified as belonging to the 'Satoshi-era whale' – meaning a wallet that has not been active since the early days of Bitcoin – suddenly transferred a large amount of BTC. This event caused significant selling pressure on the market, pulling the price down slightly from the peak of $122,800 to below $120,000.
For institutional and individual investors, unusual movements from long-term wallets often carry negative signals – or at least create a sense of caution that the market may soon undergo a deeper correction.
📊 Alpha Price Indicator – A Strong 'Checkpoint' at $123,370
According to Joao Wedson – CEO of Alphractal, the important reason why Bitcoin cannot surpass the $123,000 mark lies in the on-chain indicator called Alpha Price.
What is Alpha Price?
Alpha Price is a market pricing indicator based on:
Market age (measured in days)
Average market capitalization throughout Bitcoin's operational time
This indicator creates dynamic support and resistance levels, reflecting investor behavior trends over different stages.
What is the level $123,370?
The price level of $123,370 is the second Alpha Price threshold – a strong resistance area that is both psychological and technical in nature. According to Wedson, if Bitcoin cannot surpass and maintain above this price range, the next growth phase (bull cycle phase) will not be able to begin.
🔁 Pullback Before Explosion?
Despite temporarily failing at the $123,000 level, Wedson does not believe this is the market peak. On the contrary, he expects Bitcoin may have to undergo a short-term correction to gain momentum for a new growth phase.
When the actual on-chain trading volume is updated on Saturday, July 19, the value of Alpha Price will also be adjusted. If BTC can clearly and steadily break above $123,370, the next target will be the $143,000 region, corresponding to the peak of the upcoming potential rally.
📌 Significance for Investors
Closely monitor Alpha Price: This is a dynamic indicator that changes in real-time. Investors need to update frequently to stay informed about effective resistance/support areas.
Caution with whales: Movements from old wallets can be signs of distribution or simply asset movement. However, market sentiment still reacts strongly to this behavior.
No panic during correction: A pullback is necessary to consolidate buying pressure and avoid the situation of 'chasing the peak'. If BTC holds above $117K–$119K, the trend remains bullish.
🔮 Upcoming Scenario: Can Bitcoin Rise to $143,000?
If we consider the Alpha Price model and current momentum, Bitcoin still has strong upward potential. However, the prerequisite is to surpass and hold above $123,370. If this occurs in the coming week, the market may witness a new breakout phase, targeting the $143,000 region – corresponding to the third Alpha Price peak.
📈 Summary
💬 What do you think? $BTC will it undergo a deep correction or break $123K to reach $143K? Please share your investment perspective.
