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the underlying logic of BTC, ETH, SOL and the reconstruction of the global economic order
1. Bitcoin (BTC): The Ultimate Pricing of Digital Gold
Timeline and Price Prediction
| Time Node | Price Range (USD) | Core Driving Logic | White Paper/Economic Order Support |
| End of 2025 | 180,000-220,000 | Spot ETF asset size exceeds 250 billion US dollars (Galaxy), institutional holdings account for 20% of circulation (Coin Metrics) | White Paper Chapter 7 "Incentive Mechanism": After halving, the block reward drops to 3.125BTC, and the annual inflation rate is less than 1%, approaching gold (2.4%) |
| 2027 | 350,000-450,000 | Global central bank digital currency (CBDC) interoperability demand surges, BTC becomes a safe haven asset for cross-border settlement (Standard Chartered Bank) | Global economic order: US dollar credit crisis (US debt accounts for 120% of GDP), BTC market value accounts for 20% of gold (Galaxy) |
| 2030 | 800,000-1.2 million | Inclusion in global systemically important assets (such as IMF reserves), institutional allocation ratio reaches 5% (BlackRock model) | White Paper Chapter 1 "Electronic Cash System": 21 million upper limit, against sovereign currency over-issuance, become "digital hard currency" |
Bottom-level logical argument
1. Supply rigidity: After the halving in March 2024, the annual issuance of BTC will drop from 1.8 million to 900,000, and will be halved again to 450,000 in 2028. The inflation rate in 2030 will be only 0.4% (close to gold).
2. Institutionalization wave: The scale of US spot ETFs will exceed US$250 billion in 2025 (Galaxy). MicroStrategy and other companies continue to increase their holdings. In 2030, the proportion of institutional holdings may exceed 50%.
3. Global settlement alternative: The monopoly of the SWIFT system is broken, and the cost of cross-border payments is reduced by 90% through the BTC Lightning Network (Layer 2). In 2028, the processing volume will account for 15% of global remittances (World Bank data).
4. Reconstruction of the economic order: The hegemony of the US dollar declined (the share of global foreign exchange reserves dropped from 60% to 45%), BTC became an "anti-sanction asset", and the official reserves of Venezuela, Iran and other countries exceeded 100,000 coins.
2. Ethereum (ETH): Value capture of global financial infrastructure
Timeline and Price Prediction
| Time Node | Price Range (USD) | Core Driving Logic | White Paper/Economic Order Support |
| By the end of 2025 | 6000-8000 | Danksharding upgrade completed, L2 settlement accounts for 70% of global DeFi (Coin Metrics) | White Paper Chapter 5 "State Machine": Achieve 100,000 TPS through sharding, support global stablecoin (US$400 billion) settlement |
| 2027 | 12,000-18,000 | RWA (real assets on the chain) scale exceeds 1 trillion US dollars (JPMorgan Chase), ETH pledge rate exceeds 50% (Lido data) | Global economic order: BlackRock issues ETH mortgage bonds, links traditional finance and DeFi, and becomes the "central bank of digital assets" |
| 2030 | 30,000-50,000 | 50% of cross-border trade is settled through ETH L2 (WTO report), interoperable with CBDC (such as digital euro) | White Paper Section 1 "Vision": Global financial underlying protocol, capturing 1% of global GDP (supported by a market value of approximately US$800 billion) |
Bottom-level logical argument
1. Technological iteration: EIP-4844 (Danksharding) reduces L2 data costs by 90%, and Blob space fees will exceed US$1 billion in 2025 (VanEck), supporting DeFi TVL to exceed US$200 billion.
2. Staking economy: Under the PoS mechanism, the staking rate will exceed 30% in 2025 (annualized return 5.2%), the annual net issuance of ETH will turn negative (-0.5%), and the deflation model will strengthen value storage (Section 5.4 of the white paper).
3. RWA Revolution: Real assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold are put on the chain (such as Ondo Finance). The scale of fixed income on the chain will exceed one trillion in 2027, and ETH will become the underlying collateral (accounting for 60%).
4. Integration of economic order: The Fed’s interest rate cut cycle (starting in 2025) drives up risk assets. ETH, as “digital silver”, forms a “dual anchor system” with BTC, covering both risk aversion (BTC) and growth (ETH) needs.
3. Solana (SOL): The ecological premium of a high-performance public chain
Timeline and Price Prediction
| Time Node | Price Range (USD) | Core Driving Logic | White Paper/Economic Order Support |
| End of 2025 | 275-350 | Firedancer upgrade achieves 1 million TPS (Solana Labs), DePIN (physical infrastructure) ecosystem explodes | White Paper Chapter 3 "Proof of History (PoH)": Low latency + low cost, seize the Web3 application market (such as Solana mobile phone) |
| 2027 | 500-700 | DePIN network covers 50% of developing countries (UN report), on-chain AI agents (such as Fetch.ai) are popular | Global economic order: emerging markets skip traditional infrastructure, Solana becomes the "digital infrastructure standard" (such as India's Web3 plan) |
| 2030 | 1500-2500 | Interoperable with Ethereum L2 (such as Polygon zkEVM), becoming a global clearing layer supplement (accounting for 10% of cross-border payments) | White Paper Chapter 6 "Decentralization": Ensure the balance between decentralization and performance through the validator voting mechanism (Firedancer accounts for more than 30%) |
Bottom-level logical argument
1. Performance advantage: PoH consensus + Firedancer optimization, TPS will exceed 100,000 in 2025 (currently 2000), transaction costs will be reduced to US$0.0001, attracting high-frequency applications (such as blockchain games, DePIN).
2. Ecosystem synergy: The Solana Mobile ecosystem (such as the Seeker phone) has more than 50 million users (by 2027), and the on-chain AI agent handles daily payments, forming a closed loop of "device-public chain-application".
3. Emerging market opportunities: In Southeast Asia, Africa and other regions, Solana's low cost supports inclusive finance (such as the Philippine central bank's pilot SOL cross-border remittances), and its users will account for 40% of global crypto users in 2030.
4. Dislocation of economic order: The financial system in developed countries is rigid. Solana has become the preferred public chain for Web3.0 native applications by virtue of "innovation without permission" (Section 1 of the white paper), capturing the value of the next generation of the Internet.
IV. Three Pillars for Reconstructing the Global Economic Order
1. De-dollarization accelerates:
- By 2025, the proportion of RMB cross-border payments will rise to 25% (SWIFT data), and BTC and ETH will become "non-US dollar settlement tools", weakening the US dollar's ability to impose sanctions.
- Logic: The censorship resistance designed in the white paper (BTC’s P2P, ETH’s smart contract immutability) meets the needs of de-dollarization.
2. DeFi replaces traditional finance:
- In 2027, the scale of DeFi lending will exceed 500 billion US dollars (Coin Metrics), and interest rate marketization (such as Aave V3) will subvert the bank's interest rate spread model.
- Logic: The "programmable currency" in the ETH white paper and the high performance of SOL support global non-intermediary financial services.
3. Real Assets on Chain (RWA):
- In 2030, the scale of on-chain RWA will reach 10 trillion US dollars (McKinsey), tokenized US bonds and stocks will circulate through ETH/SOL, and traditional finance will be "Lego-ized".
- Logic: Solve the liquidity fragmentation of traditional assets and comply with the global trend of asset digitization (IMF (2025 Global Financial Stability Report)).
5. Risk and Modification Factors
| Risk Dimension | BTC Risk Scenario | ETH Risk Scenario | SOL Risk Scenario |
| Regulation | The United States recognizes BTC as a security (15% probability, price drop 40%) | L2 is included in SEC supervision (price drop 35%) | Validator centralization (such as Jump Trading control, price drop 50%) |
| Technology | Lightning Network congestion (Layer 2 failure, price drop of 25%) | Account abstraction (ERC-4337) popularization failure (TVL stagnation) | Firedancer security vulnerability (network downtime, ecological loss) |
| Macro | Hard landing of the global economy (risk asset sell-off, price drop of 60%) | Digital euro replaces stablecoin (USDC share cut in half) | Policy suppression in emerging markets (such as India banning encryption, user loss) |
6. Conclusion: The Ultimate Anchor Point of Time and Price
- BTC: USD 800,000-1.2 million in 2030, anchoring 50% of the global gold market value (approximately USD 10 trillion), becoming “digital gold”.
- ETH: US$30,000-50,000 in 2030, anchored at 2% of the global payment settlement value (approximately US$1.6 trillion), becoming "digital silver".
- SOL: USD 1,500-2,500 in 2030, anchoring 10% of the value of the global Web3 application infrastructure (approximately USD 500 billion), becoming the "king of high performance".
Underlying consensus: The core designs of the three white papers (BTC’s scarcity, ETH’s programmability, and SOL’s high efficiency) are deeply aligned with the migration of the global economic order from “sovereign credit” to “algorithmic credit,” driving them to become the most certain value carriers in the next five years