#AltcoinBreakout XTZ surged 43% in 24h, after surpassing 1.0 it became overbought in the short term; 0.98–1.03 is a high turnover area forming a new value anchor, if a pullback does not break, can follow with short-term longs, if it breaks below 0.95, then quickly stop loss; above 1.05/1.13 two major short liquidity pools are waiting to be harvested, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.6, position ≤ 1%.
Key interval structure
• Value anchor (POC): 1.0025, 62.65 million coins were traded here in the past two weeks, indicating sufficient handover between longs and shorts, regarded as the new midpoint.
• High Volume Node (HVN): 0.965–1.01, 1.05–1.07, two layers of 'buffer mats', often providing support during pullbacks.
• Low Volume Node (LVN): A vacuum zone below 0.95, once broken, could quickly slide to 0.91; above 1.13–1.15 is also an LVN, and a breakout will accelerate.
• 70% volume coverage zone: 0.758–1.128, current price 0.991 is close to the upper edge, entering the 'overbought edge' in the short term.
Momentum verification
• Up Volume near POC accounts for 54%, slightly leaning towards longs but not forming absolute dominance; above 1.05, Up Volume drops sharply to 40%, short orders are accumulating.
• Contract positions increased by 117% in 24h, surged by 56% in the 8h period, indicating clear short-term funding chasing highs; funding rate -0.005, longs are paying interest, beware of squeeze adjustments.
Bollinger Bands + MA
• The 1h Bollinger Bands are opening upwards, price is close to the 76% upper band; MA200 is far below at 0.67, with a divergence of 47%, indicating extreme overbought conditions.
• Open interest and price are rising together, no divergence has appeared yet, the probability of trend continuation remains high.
Order book abnormalities
• The distant sell walls at 2.8 (300,000 USDT) and 5.67 (260,000 USDT) are far from reach, not forming substantial pressure in the short term; near 0.98–1.0, the buy wall of 500,000 USDT provides initial support.
Market cycle judgment
• Daily level has exited the long-term bottom zone, entering the early stage of 'rally-consolidation'; if the weekly closes above 1.05, it can confirm a medium-term reversal.
Trading strategy (15m–1h timeframe)
1. Aggressive: Current price 0.991, light long position, stop loss at 0.975 (below HVN outer edge), target at 1.05 (above HVN), risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.6.
2. Stable: Wait for a pullback to POC 1.00–1.0025 and the appearance of a lower shadow bullish candle, enter long, stop loss at 0.985, target at 1.05/1.07, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.0.
3. Conservative: If a volume breakout above 1.05 occurs, a pullback to 1.045 without breaking can be followed with longs, stop loss at 1.03, target at 1.13, risk-reward ratio ≈ 4.0.
4. Reverse: If it breaks below 0.95 (LVN) and Down Volume > 55%, take a reverse short position, stop loss at 0.965, target at 0.91, risk-reward ratio ≈ 3.1.
Risk control tips
• Single trade risk ≤ 1% of the account, do not add positions during high volatility periods.
• Strategy invalidation: Daily close below 0.95 or funding rate turns positive with a sharp decrease in positions.
• Event risk: macroeconomic negative news or negative news related to the XTZ ecosystem could trigger a long squeeze.
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