On the day Bitcoin broke through 120,000 dollars, there were two particularly striking scenes: on one side, analysts in BlackRock's trading room raised their glasses to celebrate while looking at their holding data (their Bitcoin ETF holdings just surpassed 700,000 coins); on the other side, 109,000 retail investors' short positions were liquidated, with 527 million dollars evaporating overnight, the largest single position being 51.56 million USD in Binance's BTCUSDT contract, not even making a sound.
This is not just a simple surge; it is a complete change of capital from old to new — the seeds sown by Satoshi Nakamoto are now being harvested by Wall Street.
1. Institutions hold more Bitcoin than Satoshi Nakamoto.
BlackRock, this giant whale, is now set to consume 40,000 Bitcoins per month. At this rate, by 2026, it could accumulate 1.2 million coins. Keep in mind that there are only 21 million Bitcoins in total, which means that just BlackRock alone could hold nearly 6% of the circulating supply.
What's even more aggressive is a Japanese company called Metaplanet, whose CEO directly invested 238 million USD to buy Bitcoin at a price of 108,000, now holding 15,000 coins, with a yield soaring to 416% — this is not investment; it is clearly a bet that Bitcoin will replace gold.
The madness of institutions has directly changed Bitcoin's 'foundation.' Previously, price support relied on retail investors' emotional trading; now, it relies on ETF capital flows: last week, the net inflow into spot ETFs was 300 million dollars, with a total size breaking 136.7 billion dollars. This money is not for short-term arbitrage; it is intended to be held as 'long money' for several years. It's like using cement instead of sand to build a wall, making Bitcoin's price support much sturdier.
However, there's a detail that needs vigilance: the top 100 addresses still hold 18% of Bitcoin, and these early whales could dump at any time. Recently, 80,000 Bitcoins were transferred to exchanges; are they preparing to cash out or adjust their positions? This needs to be monitored.
2. Policies are providing support, but the tariff bomb has yet to explode.
This year, regulations suddenly relaxed, which feels a bit uncomfortable. The United States passed a stablecoin bill, and Hong Kong's regulations have also been implemented. The SEC even began to outline rules for cryptocurrencies — previously, institutions were feeling their way across the river, but now they have a map to cross.
The most exaggerated actions are at the national level: New Hampshire has adopted Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and the German central bank has actually sold gold to buy Bitcoin. An analyst from Standard Chartered bluntly stated: 'Bitcoin will eventually take half of gold's market share.'
But the Trump administration suddenly dropped a bomb: imposing tariffs on 14 countries, effective August 1. As soon as the news broke, Bitcoin fell from 109,000 — don't think it's become 'digital gold' and is immune to macro risks; in the short term, it still can't shake off its 'risk asset' nature. If the tariffs really take effect, it might still cause a stir.
3. Retail investors shouldn't just shout 'bull'; they must understand these signals.
Bitcoin can surge to 120,000, and technological upgrades have been a significant help. The Lightning Network can now process 100,000 transactions per second, and fees have dropped by 90%. Previously, people complained about high fees just to buy a cup of coffee, but now spending is casual. This means Bitcoin is not just a speculative item; it can genuinely be used as money.
But retail investors' emotions are a bit too high. On TikTok, Bitcoin videos have surpassed 1 billion views, and bullish options account for 70% in the derivatives market. At times like this, one must think calmly: Deribit's put/call ratio dropped from a high point to 0.8 in three days, indicating that institutions are quietly adjusting their positions while retail investors are still chasing the rise.
Here are two practical suggestions: don't open high leverage positions recklessly (the 109,000 liquidated accounts are a lesson). If you really want to enter the market, you can dollar-cost average with small positions, such as buying 100 USD worth of Bitcoin each week — buy more when it drops and less when it rises. Also, keep an eye on miners — recently, their selling volume dropped to the lowest level since 2024, indicating that miners are optimistic about the future, which is a good sign.
Finally, let me say something heartfelt:
120,000 dollars is not the endpoint, but don't fantasize about reaching 200,000 in one go. Institutions hold too much inventory; if they want to cash out, they could create a pit in no time. Retail investors should not try to guess the peak but rather follow the larger trend and manage their positions well.