The European route is the international futures variety that can be traded domestically, with cash settlement. This variety has a short listing time, leading many traders to apply the trading logic of other popular commodity futures to it. However, it is a special variety, and the trading logic behind each contract is different.

For example, in January this year, all contracts on the European route fell to around 1000, but the shipping costs on the European route were between 1200-1500...

Besides the close delivery of contract 02, all other contracts at this point can be bought with closed eyes, all have significant potential for a substantial increase!

But at this time, the technical aspect is a completely bearish trend, making many people hesitant to act.

I moved from over 1000 to 2100 in three rounds. The main contracts are 04 and 10. I didn't dare to imagine how smooth and intense the increase would be, the extent of it was huge!

From 2050 short to 1800, mainly shorting 04! Two rounds of operations brought in 1.5 million.

Next, let's discuss the logical deductions behind the contracts:

04 contract

Based on the price increase letter from shipping companies two weeks ago, the most direct impact is on 04, because the quote began on March 2 in WK10. If shipping companies continue to hold their prices, even if March is not as good as the quote, the expectation for the 04 contract will still be bullish. Therefore, while being bullish, it is necessary to closely monitor the shipping companies' pricing as the main contradiction.

As a result, after a series of operations, the average price for small containers in WK10 was 1920, while the current SCFI is only 1693, indicating that the price increase in March was substantial, but the actual landing is very limited! Therefore, when 2199 is short, the impact is also the greatest, and the 04 contract should be shorted!

Depth: The main contradiction is the shipping company's quotes and actual prices for 04!

June and August contracts

June and August are peak cargo seasons, and starting from March, the price hold will continue, as will the quotes and price increases from shipping companies...

Even if the March price falls sharply, 0405 continues until June, there are still three months to report increases. Coupled with the expectations of the traditional peak season for cargo, so for June and August, the main focus is on the increase in cargo volume, rather than the situation of the March price drop. At the same time, there is another situation, which is that the bullish positions of 04 will shift to the June and August contracts, further supporting the prices of June and August.

Depth: The main contradiction in cargo volume for June and August!

10 and 12 contracts

In terms of long-term contracts, the direction of geopolitical conflicts has always been the core of its trading. The reason is that the detours caused by geopolitical conflicts have increased the capacity demand on the European route by an additional 20%-25%. If geopolitical conflicts ease, the supply-demand structure will reverse, coupled with a large number of new ships to be delivered in 2025, the market faces significant capacity surplus pressure.

Thus, the main contradiction for the 10 and 12 contracts is their own prices... This is also why I initially chose to go long on 10, simply because it is the cheapest! Safe! The speculation on overdue resumption will eventually give it a chance to rise!

Depth: The main contradiction for long-term contracts is the price itself #山寨季何时到来？ $BTC