Bitcoin may be entering a short-term consolidation phase after surging to a new all-time high (ATH) but still has the potential to continue rising before the end of July. According to Michael Harvey – Director of System Trading at Galaxy Digital:
"Consolidation around the current price level is my base scenario after the strong increase and new peak," Harvey shared.
Bitcoin could 'rise higher' by the end of 2025
"I expect BTC to continue its upward trend until the end of the year, but pausing for momentum at this point is reasonable. The best-case scenario for BTC price by the end of the month is to continue to rise slowly," he said.
He explains that setting a new peak this month is the most optimistic scenario, requiring strong capital inflows to continue into Bitcoin spot ETF funds in the US, ongoing accumulation from companies holding Bitcoin in treasury, and a significant increase in demand from individual investors.
Although Bitcoin spot ETF funds have recently recorded strong inflows and demand from Bitcoin treasury companies continues to rise, there is still much debate in the industry about whether retail investors have actually returned to the market.
Coinbase recently rose to position number 137 on Apple's App Store in the US — a positive signal suggesting that interest from retail investors may be increasing. However, the search volume for the keyword 'Bitcoin' on Google remains low, so widespread demand from this group has not really begun.
Bitcoin has established a new all-time high (ATH) of $123,091 on Monday, before correcting down to $118,381 at the time of writing.
The negative scenario for Bitcoin is below $110,000
However, Harvey also presented the worst-case scenario in the short term, where the price of Bitcoin could drop below $110,000.
"The negative case is driven by a risk-averse sentiment, fueled by profit-taking and/or weakness in the stock market, which I believe could cause BTC to adjust by 5-10%," he said.
Before Bitcoin surpassed the ATH of $112,000 in May on July 9, analyst Rekt Capital warned that the current cycle could only have a few months of price growth left, especially if it repeats the historical pattern from 2020.
Rekt explains that if the Bitcoin cycle follows the 2020 pattern, the market is likely to peak in October, which is 550 days after the halving event that takes place in April 2024.