In fact, this wave aligns with predictions. After a brief rise yesterday, with the passage of the cryptocurrency bill, Ethereum and other altcoins surged and then fell back. Bitcoin is unlikely to break the high in the short term (suggest waiting for a pullback to enter). The ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached 0.032, indicating a risk of pullback (expected to adjust to $3800, needing to take profits in advance), and other altcoins entering pressure zones confirm this judgment. So, will the next move be a surge or a trap?
BTC Analysis for Today:
Yesterday, BTC surged to $121,000 (4-hour level 0.618 Fibonacci level), then quickly fell, indicating selling pressure at high levels. It is expected to fluctuate between $116,000-$121,000 in the short term, possibly dropping to $115,000 to fill the gap, or even testing the trendline and FVG intersection at $112,000.
It is recommended to be cautious in the short term; consider shorting at $119,000-$120,000. Long-term outlook remains bullish; the fifth wave has not yet arrived, so it is advisable to buy on dips.
Many fans are asking: Is the $4.3 billion momentum leading BTC to $150,000?
Answer: According to the data, as of July 17, 2025, BTC has realized profits of $4.3 billion, exceeding the peaks in February and November 2024. Long-term holders have transitioned from a 4-month accumulation phase since March to distribution, and the market can withstand profit-taking without a significant price drop, indicating that short-term demand is strong enough to absorb excess supply.
The demand, momentum, and new buyers needed for the current bull market have all emerged. A strong trend may continue, but one must be cautious of the sustainability of explosive growth. Enjoy the bubble while remaining calm and rational.
ETH Analysis for Today:
Ethereum's weekly chip distribution resembles the end of the rebound in 2022, with a failed breakout. After three years of accumulation, three unsuccessful tests in 2024, and a complete clearing of chips in 2025, it is expected to restart its upward trend. The weekly chart has shown a declining expansion since March 2024, indicating extreme accumulation.
In the recent pullback, the daily candlestick shows that bullish momentum still exists, but the 4-hour candlestick volume is shrinking, with large holders offloading near $3700. In the short term, it may consolidate between $3200-$3500. An ideal buying point is at $2900, and entry can also be considered at $3200-$3400. Long-term investors can accumulate spot positions, while short-term traders can wait to operate contracts after the trendline is broken.
Many fans are asking: Can ETH still be bought?
Answer: Refer to the chart below to assess ETH holder sentiment and short-term risks: As of July 18, this data was at 95%, with 95% floating profits among liquid chips, reaching a short-term risk zone (after entering this area in March, May, and December 2024, all saw pullbacks). The short-term profit effect has peaked, indicating a market need for consolidation.
On June 22, when ETH pulled back to $2230, this data was at 53%, indicating lower risk. Investments should be based on data rather than price (for example, if ETH rises to $8000 and then adjusts to $5000, with a profit margin below 50%, the risk is lower than the 95% risk at $3600). Short-term risk points do not signify the end of a trend; specific trading decisions should be made independently. If in doubt, feel free to add me for information exchange.
The market is currently mostly sideways, with bullish forces slowly accumulating.
Today at noon, MYX mentioned quick entries and exits, achieving a 33% increase. If it can continue to hold above EMA20 and subsequently break the previous high with increased volume, the level of 0.077 could very well be the starting point for the next wave of rise.
Key Points for Altcoin Operations:
DOGE: At a resistance level, the market adjustment may exacerbate consolidation or decline, so do not enter for now.
PEPE: Exhibits a head and shoulders bottom formation, with potential for a rapid rise after a breakout, suitable for positioning after consolidation.
SUI: Recently strong, but if the converging triangle breaks down or the market adjusts, buying boldly at $3-$3.43 is recommended.
SOL: Expected target of $200, with lower priority than Ethereum.
On-chain
After buying some #WangChai yesterday, today I increased my position in #BeeDog with a market value of 700,000! No particular logic, just driven by community enthusiasm. Although #WangChai remains the strongest in the Chinese market, BeeDog has impressive penetration. Currently, with an on-chain pullback, BeeDog's market cap has fallen below one million, indicating a thorough washout, and the daily K-line has turned bullish, showing signs of a bottom, betting on the second wave of rise!
