AAVE has a net outflow of 68,000 pieces in 24-hour contracts, with a slight 3% increase in open interest. The long-short ratio has fallen to 3.15, and the price is closely aligned with the $324 POC 'value anchor'. Short-term selling pressure dominates, but the low trading volume gap has become a trap: if the price breaks out above $326, it will rush towards $335; if it falls below 310, it will pull back to 277. Aggressive traders can chase long above 326, while conservative traders can buy low in the 310-314 range, with a unified stop loss at 308, targeting 335/277, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4:1. Risk: A macro bearish turn or a BTC drop could trigger a chain liquidation.
Key interval structure
• Value anchoring zone: 324.56 (POC) - the highest trading volume in the past two weeks is 740,000 pieces, balanced between buyers and sellers, serving as the current center.
• High trading volume buffer zone: 321-327 forms a continuous HVN, where the price is likely to linger; if it breaks upwards, 335 (sell wall of 1.11 million) is the first resistance.
• Low trading volume gaps: 310-314 and 277-280 are LVN, high probability of quick price traversal; the former is an ideal pullback zone for bulls, while the latter is the ultimate hunting ground for bears.
• 70% trading volume coverage: 273-333, currently slightly above the center of the range, neither overbought nor oversold.
Momentum verification
• Up Volume in the 321-327 range accounts for 55-57%, with buyers slightly favored but the advantage is weak; a breakout confirmation requires volume >60%.
• The trading volume for 310-314 LVN has shrunk to 280,000 pieces in the last three days. If there is a pullback followed by a strong bullish candle, it indicates a bullish signal.
Auxiliary judgment
• Bollinger Bands: Middle band at 319.8, upper band at 329.6, lower band at 312.6; price is between the middle and lower bands, indicating a short-term bearish bias.
• MA200: 316.05, with the price 1.2% above it, maintaining a mid-term bullish structure.
• Contract positions: 3% increase in 24 hours, but a continuous decrease in 1h-8h, indicating short-term funds are waiting for direction.
Order book anomaly
• Sell orders over 2 million at 326-335 are clearly suppressing; the buy wall only has 1.2 million at 310-294, which is insufficient in depth, making it prone to spikes.
Market cycle
In the medium to long term, it is still in the bull market correction phase (3M increase of 127%, 6M decrease of 5%), and in the short term, it is entering the end of the 324-335 oscillation zone, waiting for direction choice.
Trading strategy
Aggressive: Enter long if there is a breakout and pullback without breaking 324.5 at 326.5, stop loss at 308, target at 335, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4.
Conservative: Enter long if there is a bullish candle ≥1.5 times the average volume in the 310-314 range, stop loss at 308, target at 324/335, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8.
Conservative: Short if it falls below 308, stop loss at 312, target at 277, risk-reward ratio ≈3.0.
Risk warning
• 308-310 is the lifeline for bulls; falling below will trigger a series of long liquidations.
• Macroeconomic interest rates and BTC whale movements can instantly break the range.
• Fixed risk at 1%, avoid high-leverage periods.
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