24h contract net outflow of 31,000 contracts, spot only 3,200, price has dropped below the lower Bollinger band but buy orders still dominate; 408-417 is a short-term life-or-death zone, retesting 404-405 LVN can allow for light long entries, stop loss below 400, target initially at 425 POC, risk-reward ratio ≈2.8; if the volume drops below 400, then switch to short, stop loss at 405, target 390, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4. Note that 7-day OI is still up 13%, high leverage for both bulls and bears, sudden news may trigger chain liquidations.
Key Ranges and Volume Distribution
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 425.63 (22,600 contracts traded, sell orders slightly dominate 119k vs 106k)
2. High Volume Area: 418.86-427.33 five consecutive HVN creates a strong resistance wall, total volume >1 million contracts, price is likely to fall back on first touch;
3. Low Volume Gap: 404-405 (LVN) has thin trading volume of only 73,000 contracts, likely to rebound after a quick retest;
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 320.61-434.10, current price 408.7 is in the upper half of the range, not overbought but close to the upper edge, short-term space is limited;
Momentum Verification
• 404-405 LVN: Up Volume 59%, close to buyer-dominated threshold, waiting for ≥60% confirmation;
• 425 POC: Up Volume 47%, sellers still dominate, not suitable for chasing highs;
• The last 4-hour candlestick has a smaller body and volume reduced by 32%, both bulls and bears are waiting for direction to choose;
Auxiliary Judgment
• Bollinger Bands 1h: 408.7 is near the lower band, RSI 41, short-term oversold; MA200 is 410.7, has slightly broken below, if the 1h closes back above, it may be a false break;
• Contract Position: 24h increase of 0.7%, but 7-day increase of 13.3%, leverage accumulation; funding rate +0.005%, bulls paying interest, suppressing chasing highs;
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Place long orders at current price 408.7±1, stop loss at 400 (-2.1%), first target 425 (+4.0%), risk-reward ratio ≈1.9; second target 437 (+6.9%), risk-reward ratio ≈3.3
Conservative: Wait for a quick recovery after a 15m level volume drop below 405, then enter long, stop loss as above;
Conservative: If the 1-hour body drops below 400, switch to short, stop loss at 405, target 390, risk-reward ratio ≈2.4;
Risk Control Tips
• Losing 400 will trigger stop losses for long positions in the 405-417 range, potentially dropping to 390;
• Macro Risk: If the market plunges again, high leverage OI may lead to a chain liquidation;
• Position ≤1%, avoid high volatility periods during US stock market open.
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