The sound of gunfire in the Middle East hits the pause button, but the starting gun for the crypto market has quietly fired! When the U.S. special envoy for Syria announced a ceasefire agreed upon by the Syrian leaders, global investors were asking: How will this geopolitical 'breather' stir up the crypto world?
The 'double-edged sword' of the crypto market
On the surface, the easing situation in the Middle East may reduce market risk aversion, but seasoned players in the crypto circle know: every twist in geopolitics is a baton for the flow of funds.
Short-term bearish? If oil prices fall after the ceasefire, it may cool inflation expectations, ease the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and risk assets including cryptocurrencies may welcome a rebound. Long-term bullish? Stability in the Middle East will release more funds into emerging markets, and cryptocurrencies, as 'digital gold,' may become a new choice for capital preservation.
Historical case: The 'mysterious correlation' between conflict and cryptocurrency prices
Looking back at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Bitcoin surged 17% in a week while gold only rose 3%. Why? The 'decentralized' nature of cryptocurrencies shows greater advantages when the traditional financial system is turbulent.
During the 2023 Israel-Palestine conflict, the Ethereum ecosystem project Arbitrum rose 40% against the trend due to the 'cross-border payment' concept. This indicates that geopolitical crises often accelerate the practical application of blockchain technology.
Personal viewpoint:
Oil chain projects may welcome catalysts: The ceasefire in Syria may drive energy cooperation in the Middle East, focusing on projects related to energy blockchain such as Fantom and Energy Web Token. Surge in demand for stablecoins: If capital flows back to the Middle East, stablecoins like USDT and USDC may experience an increase in holdings, indirectly benefiting Ethereum as the underlying public chain.
Safe-haven funds turning to Bitcoin: If the traditional stock market rebounds due to the ceasefire, Bitcoin may become an institutional hedging tool, referencing the logic of BTC rising against the trend at the beginning of the pandemic in 2020.
To speak frankly: Geopolitics has never been the enemy of the crypto market but rather a driving force for the redistribution of funds. When the smoke of Syria temporarily clears, which type of crypto asset do you favor? Is it 'digital gold' Bitcoin, or the 'king of applications' Ethereum? If you have a different opinion, feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments.
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