When NASDAQ-listed companies start hoarding Dogecoin, you know this meme season is really different.
—Shen Ce, July 19 Market Notes

As an old player who watches the market every day, the violent rise of DOGE this time is not as simple as retail investors' FOMO. I will break down three layers of logic and explain it to you with practical experience.

1. Corporate-level 'hoarding DOGE' ignites the market: Bit Origin's $500 million bullet loaded

Core action: NASDAQ mining company Bit Origin (BTOG) announced a $500 million fundraising (400 million equity + 100 million convertible bonds), exclusively purchasing DOGE as the company's reserve asset, with the first phase of $15 million already purchased.
My interpretation:
This operation completely replicates MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy, upgrading DOGE from a 'joke coin' to an institutional-level asset. Back then, MSTR hoarding BTC drove Bitcoin to break its previous high, and now BTOG's stock price surged 90% in a single day, with market expectations that $500 million in real money is about to pour into DOGE—this is the nuclear fuel for the surge.

2. Capital rotation: The 'Dog King' competition of altcoin season

Data speaks:

  • Bitcoin's market share plummeted 3% in 30 days (63.97% → 60.79%);

  • The altcoin season index surged 71% in a week, nearing the trigger threshold;

  • DOGE to BTC exchange rate skyrocketed 8.2%, clearly indicating a shift from large to small investments.

My observation:
This round of market is very similar to the altcoin season of 2021—Bitcoin is sideways, the Dog King charges forward. On-chain, it is clear to see whales withdrawing from old coins like XRP and investing in DOGE, with a single hourly trading volume soaring to 122 million on July 17, three times the daily average.

Experience: In a bull market, institutions adjust their positions three times faster than retail investors. Following large on-chain transfers can help you grab the first bite.

3. Technical analysis: Double bottom + wedge breakout, target aimed at $0.4

Key pattern confirmation:

  1. Double bottom structure: Neckline breakthrough at $0.21, theoretical target at $0.42 (+77%);

  2. Descending wedge: The 2-day chart breaks the edge. Once it stabilizes at $0.24, the target is $0.63 (+161%).

Indicator signals:

  • RSI surged to 81.54 (overbought but bull market may continue);

  • MACD histogram continues to expand, bullish momentum is strong;

  • Bollinger Bands broke above the upper band (%B=1.12), indicating trend continuation.

My operation reference:

  • Breakthrough at $0.26: Increase positions and chase more, target $0.3-$0.4;

  • Pullback to $0.22: Split positions to buy low (7-day SMA strong support);

  • Fall below $0.20: Stop loss and wait (to prevent leveraged liquidation).

    Whale shopping spree

4. On-chain truth: Whales have consumed 2.3 billion DOGE

Whale actions:
In the past 48 hours, addresses holding 10 million to 100 million DOGE have swept up 2.3 billion (≈$540 million).
On-chain indicators:

  • CMF (Cash Flow): +0.15, capital continues to flow in;

  • Position distribution: The proportion of small holders holding 0-0.1 DOGE has risen to 35.2%, with whales and small holders working together to push prices up.

Risk warning:
RSI overbought + bullish liquidation pressure (on July 15, $3.53 million liquidated), if it falls below $0.22 it may trigger a correction.Leverage should not exceed 3 times, beware of needle spikes!

Shen Ce summary: Capture three signals to fully benefit from this dog market

  1. Institutions hoarding DOGE: Keep a close eye on BTOG purchasing progress, $500 million in ammunition has only used $15 million;

  2. Altcoin season rotation: When Bitcoin's market share falls below 60%, DOGE will accelerate towards the top;

  3. Whale on-chain footprints: Surge in large transfers + net outflow from exchanges = precursor to a second surge.

Ultimate goal:
Stabilizing at 0.25 → Charging towards 0.3 (short-term), breaking through 0.36 → looking at 0.63 (medium-term), once corporate capital is in place, $1 is not a dream.

Final words: How much do you think DOGE can reach this time? $0.3 or directly $0.5?Let's share and discuss in the comments!
(Don't forget: don't chase high when overbought, wait for a pullback to get in—Shen Ce helps you live longer in the bull and bear markets)

If you don't know what an effective breakout is, you can come to find Shen Ce, and I'll guide you step by step. Are you stuck? When to buy the dip? It's the same saying, feeling confused and helpless and not knowing what to do, just comment on the profile picture. I need fans, and you need references #山寨币突破