1. Top Trader Pigeon
The pigeon updated at noon today:
It seems I... got off early?
Looking back, we have obviously entered an acceleration phase.
Now some eye-catching market movements are starting to appear, and prices have significantly risen compared to a month ago.
The countdown has begun; the end will eventually come,
But I think we have some time to enjoy this journey before the music stops.
(The pigeon said he sold too early, believes the countdown to the peak has begun, but thinks it can rise for a while longer, and the later it gets, the more vigilant one needs to be about the risk of being left holding the bag.)
2. Trader Vivian
Updated from 05:19 to 07:23 on July 18 Beijing time:
If you want to short BTC, the daily close must be below 119.5K,
Before that, short positions are not considered safe.
If it doesn't close below, then Friday (TGIF) is a bullish opportunity,
Because this wave of market movement is completely driven by retail FOMO, as you can see.
Next operation plan:
· Plan A: Daily close below 119.5K → Short at 120K → Target 116K
· Plan B: Daily close above 119.5K → Long at 117777 → Target 122K
I will explain the specific logic in voice.
(The following is a summary of voice content:)
If retail and whales start building long positions, and the close breaks the 600 million dollar order position (119K-120K), then this order becomes important support, and whales officially enter to go long; if the close is below this order, then the whale's short position is executed, making it safe to short. If the close is below 19.5K, a reassessment is necessary, as new orders take precedence, indicating that the market may be induced by retail behavior to complete large orders.
Updated from 07:42 to 08:00 on the 18th Beijing time:
This box is the value area, right?
If the price goes up but is reaccepted back into this range, that is a clear bearish signal.
And if the daily closes below 119.5K, then Friday (TGIF) will be a very clean shorting opportunity.
But note that the TGIF structure must wait until after Thursday's close to be established.
On high timeframes (HTF), we measure 'wick to close';
On low timeframes (LTF), we measure 'wick to wick'.
Not just TGIF,
All Fibonacci (FIB) structures are like this:
HTF uses wick to candlestick close, LTF uses wick to wick.
But it must also be remembered that even if all conditions are met, one must be very cautious when entering the market.
Many people bought in within an hour after the genius bill was passed, and they will definitely retaliate.
Therefore, it is not advisable to short easily before the London session (Beijing time afternoon),
Because the price is likely to rebound to at least 120K.
Here it comes—TGIF short position at 117777. This means: short positions must be closed at 117777. Since the daily closes short, the price will slightly dip below the TGIF level.
The red path in the chart represents the weekend's market. It will look like it is about to break down,
But the daily will eventually close above TGIF. Then it will dip once more, filling about half of the shadow during the weekend, and then stagnate.
This entire movement will look like a breakdown + retest becoming resistance, but it is actually just a bearish illusion on a lower timeframe (LtF bearishness).
Then Monday is a buying opportunity, going long from 117777, targeting at least 121.5K, and at most 122K, with this target likely to be reached around next Wednesday.
The only days suitable for shorting are Friday and Monday, and even on Friday, you can only short until noon; the daily close won't turn short.
By the way, I like TAO, and of course, Trump and Melania.
Updated at 17:12 on the 18th Beijing time:
We have reached the TGIF support level, and now we will slowly add long positions in batches, as we expect the price to dip slightly further, so I have closed all short positions and am currently in a hedged state—one long, one short.
Starting Monday, I will only go long.
Current situation:
· My long position is LTC
· My short position is Trump
(Vivian believes that because a giant whale opened a 600 million U short position at around 119K, she is still bearish and plans to go long on Monday. The bear point only goes down to 117777, and currently, she holds hedging positions (pair trading).)
3. Top Trader Joshua
Updated at 04:00 on the 18th Beijing time:
I cleared many contract positions, preparing to wait for a wave of pullback. The reaction to BlackRock's staking news has been quite muted,
Even if bonkguy showed the profit chart of BONK, the reaction from BONK was weak. The double top structure of FLOKI also failed,
Wait for these signals...
There is a high possibility of a local top forming.
At noon today:
I took a nap, and when I woke up, I saw the news that SBET is looking to raise another 800 million dollars,
Along with the news about Trump...
At 16:35 in the afternoon:
I will also operate conservatively until the weekend. I will continue to hold the spot I bought at the beginning of the month and will only adjust leverage on contract positions.
(Joshua also closed some short-term long positions yesterday, retaining some spots, but he feels he sold too early.)
4. Top Trader Altcoin Sherpa
Updated this morning Beijing time:
Overall, I am still very bullish, but I am not in a hurry to open a bunch of new positions. I already built a lot of spot positions at very low levels before, and I am very satisfied with my current holdings, and I will also go hiking/traveling in the next few days.
Currently, I am mainly looking for some coins to trade in waves. In this market, flexibility is the most important. You need to be ready to increase or decrease positions at any time.
For active traders, constant rebalancing is the optimal strategy; but if you are more passive, that’s okay, you just need to pick a few quality coins and hold them with peace of mind.
I personally think now is the time to buy on dips rather than look for shorting points. Overall, I plan to enjoy this wave of market movement. In my opinion, many altcoins have very strong charts against the dollar.
I think we might welcome several weeks to two months of good days, followed by some fluctuations at the end of Q3, and then a wave of crazy market movements in Q4.
(Sherpa still believes the next few weeks will continue to rise, but he is not fully invested. He suggests buying on dips and not shorting.)
5. Top Trader Definalist
He updated this afternoon:
Narrative sectors to watch in July:
@aave (DeFi)
As the trading day for WLFI approaches, I will pay more attention to those mainstream DeFi projects that are most likely to benefit, AAVE being one of them.
@HoloworldAI (AI companionship type)
In the narrative triggered by Musk's 'AI companionship', I think this is the only relevant token that has already launched contract trading.
Currently, the market capitalization is 52 million dollars, which is only about half of ANI's historical peak.
Old MEME coins
I looked at the charts and bought some old MEME coins in spot positions,
Especially for those coins that have not even risen to 1/4 to 1/2 of their historical peak.
Just a reminder—during a bull market, MEME has always been the category with the highest returns.
At the same time, also be wary of increased market volatility.
My personal strategy is: whenever there is unusual activity in OG Bitcoin wallets, I will add positions during pullbacks.
(Definalist is also a top trader from South Korea. He believes the next focus can be on the two narrative sectors above, and also on exploring previously popular meme coins. Everyone can reference his strategy.)
6. Top Trader Pentoshi
Updated this morning Beijing time:
Many funds I know previously heavily invested in HYPE and SOL, among which HYPE performed exceptionally well and can be said to be their most successful trade this year. However, SOL peaked compared to BTC a year and a half ago, and against the dollar, it is basically in a consolidating range. Now they are forced to rotate back to ETH from SOL because they had previously sold most of their ETH for SOL.
Most people in this world don't even know we exist. Many are just now hearing about $BTC and $ETH for the first time, and starting to understand what a future coexisting with them might look like. The entire crypto Twitter (CT) community has seriously underestimated the volume of funds in traditional markets and how high their liquidity is.
(Pentoshi mentioned that SOL has been weak recently due to some institutions rotating to ETH. In the future, after traditional financial institutions enter the crypto space, market performance will exceed our expectations.)
7. Wave Theory Liu Yudong
July 18, 2025 Daily Chart
The fourth segment of the red line is usually 0.2-0.5 of the third segment, consuming 0.495. The rise over these three days consumed 0.7 of the fourth segment, indicating that this fourth segment is likely to be a horizontal adjustment before pushing up to a new high in the fifth segment with high probability. It is expected to end the adjustment and start rising to 132669 before the 27th.
(Liu Yudong still believes in adjustment but now thinks it may be a sideways adjustment, and will push towards 132K later.)
5. Summary
I’ve seen some foreign bloggers who are optimistic about ETH and XRP breaking new highs, and also optimistic about SOL. Although currently weak, it still has the ETF funding entry, so it will rise later.
Additionally, Definalist is as skilled as Joshua, a Korean trader who is tough and speaks little. You can follow his strategy to look for meme coins. However, still focus on mainstream coins, as meme coins are too volatile.
The above content comes from Crypto Express
