Sudden changes in the cryptocurrency space! The 3,500 threshold may become the lifeline for ETH, with a $420 million options black hole lurking, and Trump stirring the pot for shorts with 'divine assistance.'

In the ever-changing battlefield of the crypto space, every fluctuation pulls at the hearts of countless investors. Last night, the ETH market staged a thrilling battle of a thousand points, once again demonstrating the harsh and variable iron law of the crypto world: the clamor of news is as fleeting as fireworks, while the traces left by technicals will be deeply etched on the charts.

News front: The intense clash of policies and capital.

Trump signs (GENIUS Act), USDT on-chain increase

News from the White House came in the early hours of July 19, revealing that Trump signed the stablecoin regulatory bill. Meanwhile, USDT saw an increase of 510 million on-chain in a single day. This policy move undoubtedly dropped a bombshell in the cryptocurrency market, with all parties closely monitoring its subsequent effects.

Cryptocurrency total market cap breaks records, but whales quietly position themselves for shorts.

The total market cap of cryptocurrencies once broke records, presenting a seemingly prosperous scene. However, according to data from the Rocket Community, whale addresses have densely placed short orders in the 3,550 - 3,600 price range. This phenomenon seems to hide the layouts and plans of large funds, leading to doubts about the market's direction.

Disagreements within the Federal Reserve lead to panic among leveraged funds.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller avoids discussing the July interest rate stance, while Goolsbee claims that 'future interest rates may plummet.' This internal division signal is like throwing a boulder into a calm lake, triggering a stampede of leveraged funds. In such a macro backdrop, the cryptocurrency market also finds it difficult to remain unscathed, facing significant impacts.

Death triangle appears, price is under downward pressure.

From a technical indicator perspective, the ETH price continues to be suppressed at the lower Bollinger band (3,502), with the MACD double line forming a death cross below the zero line for the second time; the death triangle has indeed revealed itself. This technical formation undoubtedly places great pressure on the longs, and the atmosphere of shorts in the market is becoming increasingly thick.

The hidden secrets behind volume and buy orders.

Although the trading volume remains at a modest level of 18,212 units, there is a buy order for 43,000 ETH at the 3,500 position on-chain. This phenomenon suggests that the main players may be carefully constructing a 'trap for shorts.' Beneath the seemingly calm market, there are actually undercurrents at play.

Key threshold breached, a cliff-like market may reappear.

Currently, the lower Bollinger band at 3,502 has become a critical lifeline. If the weekly closing price falls below this threshold, a cliff-like market drop from 3,650 to 3,200, as seen in June, is highly likely to occur again, which would undoubtedly be a nightmare for the longs.

Tycoon Perspective: Beware of multiple risks, a long-short battle is imminent.

Last night, Trump's CBDC ban should have been good news for ETH; however, the main players went against the trend, crashing the market and harvesting the longs. This scene is reminiscent of the 'good news sell-off' on the day BlackRock's BTC ETF was approved in January 2024.

At this moment, we need to be wary of several major risks: first, the inertia of the market 'buying the expectation and selling the fact' after policy implementation; second, the potential sell-off intimidation from V God transferring 50,000 ETH to exchanges; third, the stablecoin bill may withdraw liquidity from the ETH ecosystem.

More critically, on-chain monitoring shows that a certain market maker has hoarded up to $420 million in put options at 3,550, creating a death resonance with the lower Bollinger band at 3,502. Tonight, will this long-short struggle trigger a 'Gamma squeeze'?