It's not that the market is too harsh, but that you haven't grasped the underlying logic of trading. The low-risk rules summarized from nine years of trading may completely change your understanding of contract trading; liquidation is often a hidden danger you have laid for yourself—discover it early and avoid it.

First, overturn three misconceptions.

  • Leverage is not the culprit of risk; position is the lifeline.
    Under 100x leverage, only invest 1% of the position; the actual risk is no different from holding 1% in the spot market. Some students use 20x leverage for ETH, investing only 2% of the principal each time, and have never experienced liquidation in three years. Key formula:Real risk = Leverage factor × Position ratio., control your position well, and high leverage can also mean low risk.

  • Stop loss is not a loss; it's the account's 'lifeline.'
    During the 2024 '312 crash', 78% of accounts that experienced liquidation had a common point: they suffered losses exceeding 5% but did not stop loss. The iron rule for professional traders is: a single loss must not exceed 2% of the principal, just like installing a 'fuse' for the account to avoid burning everything in a short circuit.

  • Rolling position is not gambling; it is the correct way to compound returns.
    Try laddered position building: initial position 10% for trial and error, increase position by 10% of profits. For example, with a principal of 50,000, the initial position is 5,000 yuan (10x leverage), and for every 10% profit, increase the position by 500 yuan. When BTC rises from 75,000 to 82,500, the total position only increases by 10%, but the safety margin increases by 30%, making it more reliable and steady.

Institutional-level risk control model, follow it to avoid pitfalls.

  • Dynamic position formula.
    Total position ≤ (Principal × 2%) ÷ (Stop loss amount × Leverage factor)
    Example: With a principal of 50,000, set a 2% stop loss, using 10x leverage, the maximum position = 50000×0.02÷(0.02×10)=5000 yuan. According to this calculation, the position will not be out of control.

  • Three-step profit-taking method.
    ① Close 1/3 when profits reach 20%; ② Close another 1/3 when profits reach 50%; ③ Set a trailing stop for the remaining position (for example, exit if it falls below the 5-day moving average). During the 2024 halving market, someone made a million with a principal of 50,000 by using this method in two trends, achieving a return of over 1900%.

  • Hedging insurance mechanism.
    When holding a position, spend 1% of the principal to buy Put options, which has been tested to hedge 80% of extreme risks. In the April 2024 black swan event, this method helped 23% of accounts preserve their net worth.

90% of people have fallen into these traps (data speaks).

  • Holding a position for over 4 hours increases the probability of liquidation to 92%;

  • High-frequency trading (averaging over 500 trades per month) will deplete the principal by 24%;

  • Being greedy after making a profit, 83% of accounts will give back their gains.

The essence of trading, clarified with mathematics.

Expected profit = (Win rate × Average profit) - (Loss rate × Average loss)
For example, setting a 2% stop loss and a 20% profit target, even with a win rate of only 34%, can achieve positive returns. Professional traders rely on strict stop losses (average loss of 1.5%) and trend capturing (average profit of 15%), achieving an annualized return of over 400%.

Ultimate rule, remember these few points.

  • Single loss ≤ 2%;

  • Annual trades ≤ 20 (trade less, wait for more opportunities);

  • Profit-loss ratio ≥ 3:1 (profit 3 units for every 1 unit lost);

  • 70% of the time in cash waiting (opportunities are waited for).


The essence of the market is a probability game; smart traders risk 2% to bet on trend profits. Remember: control your losses, and profits will follow. Build a mechanical trading system to let discipline replace emotions, which is the key to sustained profitability.

The old master has position management rules; here, the concept of liquidation does not exist, and I will periodically ambush the spot market, focusing on the old master #GENIUS稳定币法案 .