I. Core strategy: Value investing and risk diversification

  1. Long-term holding of mainstream assets (HODL)

    • Select targets: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and other top 10 blue-chip projects by market capitalization, with historical annual returns of about 15-20% (2015-2024 data).

    • Logic: Smooth out volatility over time, for example, BTC surged 800% during the bull market of 2020-2021, but one must bear short-term drawdown risks of 30-50%.

    • Case: BTC fell to 3,800 in March 2020 and rose to 69,000 in November 2021, rewarding patient holders with over 17 times returns.

  2. Dollar Cost Averaging strategy (DCA)

    • Action: Invest a fixed amount in BTC/ETH each month to reduce timing risk.

    • Data: During the bear market from 2018 to 2020, DCA strategy achieved about 200% returns on BTC, outperforming a one-time investment of 150%.

    • Tools: Use the automatic DCA feature on Coinbase and Binance.

II. Passive income: Staking and DeFi

  1. Staking

    • Ethereum 2.0 staking: annual returns of 4-5%, with a minimum of 32 ETH (about $100,000) required, but zero-threshold staking can be achieved through platforms like Lido.

    • Risks: Smart contract vulnerabilities (e.g., Lido was attacked but did not cause fund loss).

  2. DeFi liquidity mining

    • Select protocols: leading platforms like Curve, Aave, etc., with APY typically between 5-15%, and be aware of impermanent loss.

    • Case: In 2020, the CRV token reward program from Curve yielded over 100% annual returns for early participants, but project risks must be considered.

III. Low-risk arbitrage strategies

  1. Cross-exchange arbitrage

    • Action: Buy BTC on Coinbase (high price) and sell on Binance (low price), with profits coming from the price difference (usually 0.1-2%).

    • Tools: Use CryptoWatch and TradingView to monitor price differences, and automate with tools like HaasOnline.

  2. Stablecoin lending

    • Platforms: Aave, Compound, with annual returns of 4-8% (note liquidation risks).

    • Case: In 2022, USDC interest rates on Aave reached 8%, but sufficient collateral (like ETH) must be reserved to guard against price crashes.

IV. Risk control and execution recommendations

  1. Fund allocation:

    • 50% mainstream assets (BTC/ETH)

    • 30% staking/DeFi

    • 20% cash or stablecoins (to cope with extreme market conditions)

  2. Tools and monitoring:

    • Use Blockfolio and Delta to track your asset portfolio.

    • Set stop-loss limits (e.g., exit if a single project loses more than 20%).

  3. Compliance and security:

    • Only use reputable exchanges (Coinbase, Binance US).

    • Use hardware wallets (Ledger, Trezor) to store large amounts of assets.

V. Key risk warnings

  • Regulatory risk: The SEC's stance on crypto assets in the U.S. may affect market sentiment (e.g., the crackdown on BUSD in 2023 led to a 10% short-term market drop).

  • Project risk: 90% of DeFi protocols fail within three years (2022 data), and it is necessary to analyze TVL (Total Value Locked) and audit reports through platforms like DefiLlama.

Summary: Example of a steady path

  1. Initial capital: $10,000

  2. Allocation:

    • 5,000 BTC/ETH Dollar Cost Averaging (monthly $500 for 10 months)

    • $3,000 deposited in Aave USDC lending (annualized 6%)

    • $2,000 purchased ETH 2.0 staking certificates (like rETH)

  3. Expected annual returns: 12-18% (with 10-30% short-term volatility to bear)

Final advice: There is no absolute 'stability' in the crypto space, but through value investing, diversified allocation, and strict risk control, one can capture upside opportunities while controlling downside risk. Always remember: do not invest money that you cannot afford to lose.

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