@Lagrange Official #LagRange
【Title】
“LA drops below 0.34! Oversold + contract open interest reduction of 3.6M, is a short-term rebound or the eve of a waterfall?”
【One-sentence overview】
The spot price of 0.3347 has hit the lower Bollinger Band, RSI 23.5 is extremely oversold; contract OI down 18.6% over 7 days, long-short ratio 1.57→1.83, short-term buying slightly prevails. If it holds above 0.32 LVN, a 2R rebound to 0.36 POC can be gambled on; if it breaks below 0.32, it will quickly test 0.30, stop loss at 0.318, risk-reward ratio 2.1:1.
Key interval structure
1. Value anchor: POC 0.3587 (maximum transaction in the last 9 days, 178M)
2. HVN: 0.3370-0.3435 (buffer zone, Down Vol 55%)
3. LVN: 0.324-0.328 (low transaction void, breakthrough accelerates)
4. 70% Value Area: 0.337-0.562, current price at the lower edge, considered oversold edge.
Momentum validation
• 0.337 HVN area Up Vol 46%, sellers slightly stronger;
• 0.324 LVN area Up Vol 100%, but total volume only 6.6M, lacking main force.
• Contract funding rate +0.005%, shorts pay interest, short-term slightly bearish but already overdrawn.
Market cycle
Late-stage bear market: 14-day decline -32%, OI significantly reduced -52M, belongs to the “low-volume downward trend” phase, waiting for volume increase to confirm the bottom.
Trading strategy
1. Aggressive: Buy small at current price 0.334-0.337, stop loss 0.318 (recent HVN 0.337 -0.5ATR), target 0.358 POC, risk-reward ratio ≈2.1.
2. Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 0.324 LVN to see ≥1.5 times average volume bullish candle and Up Vol >60% before entering, stop loss 0.319, target 0.345, risk-reward ratio ≈3.0.
3. Cautious: If it breaks 0.324 on high volume, follow the trend and short to 0.30, stop loss 0.329.
Risk warning
• Main contract OI continues to decline or breaks below 0.32, strategy invalidates.
• Macroeconomic negativity or sudden project news will amplify volatility.
• Single position ≤1%, avoid USDT liquidity gap periods.
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