🚨TRUMP drops below $10! RSI oversold + value anchor lost, should we buy the dip or stop loss? Understand it all in one article!
Summary: TRUMP current price is 9.89, RSI 28.1 extremely oversold, price has broken below 2-week POC (10.037), contract positions have flowed out 9M over 7 days, funding rate is only 0.005%, short-term selling pressure has not stopped; aggressive traders should wait for a low volume gap at 9.5-9.6 to signal a bullish rebound, while conservative traders should wait for a re-establishment above the 10.05-10.10 high volume area before entering long, with a stop loss at 9.3, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5. Note that deteriorating macro sentiment could instantly break below 9.0.
Key interval structure
• Value anchor: POC 10.037, upper HVN 10.05-10.10 (30M transactions) has been lost, turning into first resistance.
• Buffer zone: 9.7-9.8 (HVN, 19M transactions) has been broken, leaving 9.5-9.6 (LVN, 4M transactions) as potential support.
• Gap: 8.45-8.50 (LVN, 0.4M transactions) if broken will accelerate to 8.0.
• 70% value zone: 8.89-10.49, current price is in the lower half, close to the oversold edge.
• Momentum: POC interval UpVol ≈ 52%, balanced long and short; 9.5-9.6 interval UpVol only 41%, bears dominate.
Cycle judgment
The 2-week perspective is in a downward oscillation channel, 7-day contract positions -7.6%, long-term funds continue to flow out; short-term oversold, waiting for value return or confirmation of new lows.
Trading strategies
1. Aggressive long: 9.55-9.60 LVN pullback, enter when 15m shows a bullish candle + UpVol > 60%, stop loss at 9.30 (outside HVN), target 10.05 (HVN), risk-reward ratio 2.6.
2. Conservative long: re-break above 10.05 and stabilize, follow to enter, stop loss at 9.85, target 10.49 (VAH), risk-reward ratio 2.2.
3. Counter-trend short: if it breaks below 9.30 and DownVol > 60%, short on a retracement to 9.45, stop loss at 9.65, target 8.85, risk-reward ratio 2.1.
Risk control tips
• Risks: macro bearish, contract positions continue to decrease, spot selling pressure expands.
• Invalidity: break below 9.0 or reclaim 10.10 with volume.
• Position: single position ≤ 1% of capital, avoid high volatility during US stock market opening.
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