🚨PEPE about to crash? 0.0128 oversold edge, buy the dip or cut losses? Understand it all in one article!

Summary in one sentence: PEPE has fallen for 3 days, net contract flow -5.2 billion, RSI only 26, the price has dropped below the 2-week value anchor of 0.0124, short-term entering the "oversold + low liquidity" trap; aggressive traders can rely on the 0.0124-0.0122 range to make small long positions, stop loss if it breaks below 0.0120, target for a pullback to 0.0130/0.0134, risk-reward ratio ≈ 2.5; conservative traders should wait for volume to return above 0.0130 before chasing long, beware of another spike down.

Key Interval Structure

1. Value Anchor: POC 0.012416 (highest intraday volume, balanced long and short)

2. High Volume Area:

• 0.0122-0.0124 (HVN, dense buying, short-term support)

• 0.0099-0.0103 (far HVN, strong support)

3. Low Volume Gap:

• 0.0120-0.0121 (LVN, once broken will accelerate slide to 0.0117)

• 0.0134-0.0135 (LVN, first resistance on rebound)

4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.00962-0.01369, current price near the lower edge, oversold state is evident.

Momentum Verification

• Up Volume above POC 52%, balanced long and short; Down Volume in the 0.0120-0.0121 range 61%, short-term selling pressure concentrated.

• Net outflow of -3.9 billion in the past 8 hours, open interest synchronously decreased by -0.66%, major players reducing positions without reversing shorts, indicating passive stop-loss trades.

Auxiliary Judgment

• MA200 0.012745, current price deviated by -0.9%, slight rebound after first touch, consistent with mean reversion expectations.

• Bollinger Bands lower band 0.012676, price running along the band, short-term divergence is too large.

Trading Strategy

Aggressive Long: Enter at 0.01235-0.01240 (POC pullback), stop loss 0.01200 (below LVN + 0.5×ATR ≈ 0.00025), first target 0.01300 (previous HVN), second target 0.01340 (upper LVN), risk-reward ratio = 2.5.

Conservative Long: Wait for 15m closing volume to return above 0.01300 before chasing, stop loss 0.01270, target 0.01340, risk-reward ratio = 2.0.

Cautious Observation: If it breaks below 0.01200, abandon long, reverse to short-term short, target 0.01170, stop loss 0.01220.

Risk Reminder

• Contract funding rate +0.01%, long-short ratio rises to 4.2, long positions crowded and prone to liquidation.

• If the 1h closing falls below 0.0120 and Down Volume > 65%, strategy invalidated, immediately stop loss.

• Position ≤ 1%, avoid the 4 hours before delivery and during macro data release periods.

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