July 19, 2025


After Ethereum's relentless rally, some cooling-off appears necessary in the near term.

  • Key Conclusion

Short-term Correction Probability: 35-45% | Critical Defense Line: $3,400

  • Key Indicator Analysis

    -Overheating Signals


    - RSI at 80.4 (overbought) RSI vs MACD Indicators: Which is Better? vs MACD maintaining bullish momentum RSI vs MACD Indicators: Which is Better?
    -Futures open interest surged 64% Etherium→ Increased volatility expected

- Supporting Factors


SharpLink $413M purchase Etherium, continuous institutional ETF inflows
Reclaiming $2,850 pivot could target $3,800 Technical Analysis On Ethereum: Key Support & Resistance

Ethereum Correction Probability Analysis (Summary)

  • Scenario Probabilities :correction propability is rather lower.

  • Regardless of the price, take first! !

🟢 Bullish Continuation (55-65%)
$3,400 support holds → $3,700-$4,000 challenge
I nstitutional flows + technical breakout

🟡 Healthy Correction (35-45%)
$3,400 breakdown → $2,300-$2,500 correction Ethereum Analysis: Key Support & Resistance Levels
RSI cooling + profit-taking


💰 Options-Based Correction Strategy

Weekly Expiry Pattern
(Every Friday 08:00 UTC (5PM KST) options expiry
Current ETH max pain at $3,400 - perfectly aligned with key level
Max pain gravitational pull creates sideways pressure)

Strategy Setup

Call Selling: $3,500-$3,600 strikes (time decay advantage)
Put Buying: $3,200-$3,300 strikes (correction hedge)
Optimal Entry: Tuesday-Wednesday (before time decay accelerates)
Breakeven Zone: Around $3,400 max pain level

Weekly Timing Advantage
Mon-Wed: Position adjustment period
Thu-Fri: Maximum time decay + max pain convergence
Friday PM: Volatility spike around expiry

Investment Strategy (
Short-term: $3,400 support/resistance is the key inflection point
Medium-term: Gradual accumulation at $3,000-$3,300 on dips
Long-term: Maintain $5,000-$5,800 target for end-2025


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