In-Depth Analysis of BTC & ETH: The Duel of Two Giants Under Favorable Policies
📈 Price Dynamics: Breaking Key Levels, Market Sentiment Soars
Driven by historic legislative support, Bitcoin (BTC) today forcefully broke through the psychological barrier of $120,000, peaking at $120,160, setting a new high for 2025! Ethereum (ETH) followed closely, breaking the $3,400 mark, refreshing a 6-month high. This surge directly reflects the regulatory certainty brought by the U.S. House's passage of the GENIUS Act and the Clarity Act, with the market's expectations for compliance converting into real monetary purchases.
📊 Technical Analysis: Bullish Control, but Beware of Short-term Corrections
- BTC: The daily RSI rebounded from the oversold zone to 55, MACD momentum is recovering, and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands has moved up to $116,500, establishing a short-term upward trend. The strong resistance level above is $123,300 (previous high), and the support level below is $118,000 (recently broken strong support). On-chain data shows that net outflows from exchanges have exceeded 12,000 coins for eight consecutive days, with 74% of circulating tokens locked for over two years, indicating significant supply tightening.
- ETH: After breaking through $3,400, the RSI retreated from overbought to 58, requiring short-term consolidation. The resistance above is $3,500, and the support below is $3,300 (trendline support). The staking rate surged to 29.01%, with Lido's market share at 25.4%, and ecological activity providing long-term support for the price.
🌐 Fundamentals: Policy Dividends Resonating with Institutional Frenzy
1. Legislative Milestone: The U.S. GENIUS Act establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins, while the Clarity Act clarifies the regulatory division of digital assets, completely ending the "regulatory gray area." This directly stimulates institutions to accelerate their entry—BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF holdings have surpassed 700,000 coins, valued at over $75.5 billion, and Canadian listed company Super Copper has allocated 20% of its reserves to Bitcoin.
2. Technology Upgrade Drive: After the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, Layer 2 transaction costs fell by 51%, with networks such as Base seeing a surge in activity, and on-chain transaction fee revenue returning to the top. Coinbase launched the Base App, integrating social and DeFi, further consolidating ETH's ecological moat.
3. Macro Narrative Shift: Trump is promoting 401(K) retirement funds to invest in cryptocurrencies, coupled with rising expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (with a probability exceeding 90% in September), funds are migrating from traditional markets to digital assets.
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