Caldera claims to be an infrastructure platform for Rollup-as-a-Service (RaaS), aiming to lower the threshold for developers to deploy dedicated L2s, but recently changed its tune to say it's making a Metalayer, a cross-chain interoperability platform. Regardless of whether it's RaaS or cross-chain interoperability, both narratives have been over-discussed.
RaaS? AltLayer talked about this last year, with mediocre performance. Moreover, now with OP Stack, Polygon CDK, Cosmos SDK, and so many open-source tools available, making an L2 has no threshold. The more realistic question is, with the market already saturated, who will use another L2? How will TVL, users, and ecology come about? What is the significance?
Cross-chain interoperability? LayerZero, Wormhole, Chainflip have long been doing this, and their prices are not that great either. At this point, if Caldera talks about interoperability, it's basically reheating old food.
What about financing? Although it sounds impressive with endorsements from Sequoia, Dragonfly, Peter Thiel, etc., the total financing is only 25 million USD, which is not strong in an environment where projects often reach one or two hundred million. It cannot support its current 1.48 billion FDV (fully diluted valuation).
The team also has a Stanford background but lacks any actual experience in the blockchain industry, raising doubts about whether their technical capabilities can produce competitive products. In short, they come from a prestigious school but haven't proven themselves.
Even more exaggerated is the token structure: a total supply of 1 billion, currently unlocking 15%, token price at 1.48 USD, and an FDV of up to 1.48 billion USD. The token distribution is also very 'excessive':
Investors 32%
Team 14.75%
Foundation 14.94%
Community 21%
R&D 10%
Airdrop 7%
If you look closely, 32% is allocated to VC, 7% for airdrops, and the rest is basically controlled by their own people. Although the team says there will be a 5-year release, with unlocking starting after one year, parts like the foundation and R&D can be released early, meaning there is quite a bit of selling pressure.
So if you look at the entire structure and gameplay, it's a standard 'high valuation + strong control + old narrative'. As soon as the market gets a bit hot, they go online, cut a wave first, and if the project doesn't come out, it's no big deal.
So, what is the most reasonable positioning for this project? Not to buy, but to keep an eye on shorting!
Of course, not to short immediately, wait for a few key signals:
The project token price continues to hover at high levels, market enthusiasm is declining;
The rotation of mainstream sectors has ended, and funds are starting to withdraw from infrastructure themes;
Unlocking nodes is approaching, liquidity is gradually declining;
No real user or TVL growth, unable to fulfill the narrative.
When these points overlap, it becomes a precise shorting opportunity.
Don't be fooled by the superficialities like 'institutions have invested' or 'the narrative is very new'. Essentially, Caldera is just a rebranded old topic, with a highly centralized structure and a seriously inflated valuation. It seems very hot, but in reality, it’s empty inside, a typical project that is 'talking hot, acting hollow, and cutting structure'.
