In previous altcoin seasons, BTC was the leader, followed by ETH catching up with the exchange rate, establishing a step-up in the market, and then various sector altcoins would rotate. Occasionally, there would be strong whale coins pulling the market.
So how does this round of altcoin season differ from the past?
This round of altcoin season was generated under the stimulus of the coin stock market.
This core point must be remembered
Essentially, this round of coin stocks was also initiated by BTC, which is the largest coin stock concept.
Then, after BTC has run independently for a long time.
The concept of coin stocks in the second tier has emerged.
ETH, Sol, and BNB, which has recently started to rapidly join the battle.
and the third tier Tron
Everything else is a bearish short covering market led by the second and third tiers.
We won't discuss the uniqueness of BTC; all BTC needs to do is maintain an upward trend without collapsing. Therefore, the core to closely monitor in this round of altcoin season is the performance of the second tier.
So, large funds only need to focus on ETH, Sol, BNB, and the stocks related to these targets to strategize.
If viewed purely through the ETH/BTC exchange rate, the static space for ETH is approximately capped at around 8000. Of course, if BTC continues to rise and leads the market to new highs, this upper limit will also increase.
However, it should be noted that this exchange rate is not sustainable in the long run.
If it weren't for BTC having risen too much, people wouldn't prioritize buying ETH; there are some issues with ETH's logic.
People will gradually realize the butterfly effect of ETH's transition from POW to POS back then.
In comparison, BNB and Sol are somewhat more elastic and align better with the new logic.
Firstly, these two are currently the most active on-chain ecological public chain tokens.
Sol is known as the American national chain, and Trump's token was issued on it, with a very strong consensus. Moreover, this round of American crypto is politically correct, and after the market spreads, American listed companies will not skimp on Sol. Currently, there is still a five-fold gap in market cap between it and ETH.
Sol's on-chain activity and TVL have long surpassed ETH, so it should belong to a more elastic target.
BNB's on-chain activity on the BNB Chain is second only to Sol.
However, besides that, BNB is still the largest exchange's platform-enabled token in the world. This dual buffer is something other tokens do not possess, even surpassing simple coin stock logic.
It's a bit like buying non-bank financial stocks during a stock bull market, as it will be reinforced by market reflexivity. In the case of an altcoin bull market, the various benefits from BNB on exchanges will become exceptionally high, generating very high APY in phases.
This can even generate the concept of price-to-earnings ratio; this is one of the few tokens that can create the so-called price-to-earnings ratio concept, which is very beneficial for listed companies to increase their holdings.
Therefore, we see a large number of listed companies starting to use BNB as a strategic reserve recently.
In the future, BNB's flywheel effect will be very strong. In extreme market conditions, BNB will be reflected as the stock of Binance + BNB Chain.
Using Binance's market cap to estimate the value of BNB, of course, this will happen when market sentiment peaks.
The most iconic American stock target reserved by BNB is undoubtedly NanoLabs (NA).
Currently, BNB's market cap is still over four times away from Ethereum, which is also worth looking forward to.
Then, when the chain becomes active, the wealth effect on the chain will naturally not be poor.
However, the on-chain ecology of ETH is still not optimistic in the long run.
Focus on the on-chain explosion and on-chain infrastructure related targets of the Sol and BNB ecosystems. Besides the on-chain targets themselves, infrastructure-related targets like Sonic Pump and Pancake are also worth paying attention to.
Also, mainstream on-chain lending platforms like Aave, MKR, COMP, etc.
and the leading on-chain derivative financial trading like HYPE, etc.
There will be opportunities for outbreaks, and we won't miss the market.
As for the established public chains, one should choose those willing to make moves and have strong patterns. Inside, try to select those relatively new strong public chains, such as Sui. Avoid those projects that the teams have mostly abandoned, have insufficient market cap, and cannot initiate market movements, like Polkadot; they are a waste of time.
