Hey, cryptocurrency friends! I'm Muqing, your familiar guide, and I've been navigating the cryptocurrency space for 9 years, mastering everything from technical analysis to practical operations, from spot trading, contracts to on-chain projects, and from K-line research to in-depth analysis of on-chain data. Every day, I will bring you market trend predictions, hot cryptocurrency analyses, and industry dynamics insights, and I excel at helping you capture trending opportunities, avoid contract traps, and discover potential altcoins. Today, let's have a good chat about what's happening in the cryptocurrency space.
I. Overview of Hot Events in the Cryptocurrency Space
Mastercard's Statement on Stablecoin Prospects: Mastercard pointed out that stablecoins have a long way to go to become mainstream payment methods. In the current payment system, stablecoins face many challenges, such as regulatory uncertainties and the need to improve market acceptance. This statement also reflects that stablecoins need to overcome numerous obstacles in their future development to truly establish a foothold in the payment field.
Trump Discusses the Market and Related Personnel: Trump stated that due to Bessent's influence, the market has become calm and favorable. At the same time, regarding the selection of the Federal Reserve Chairman, his attitude has been inconsistent. Initially, on July 15, he mentioned that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent might be a candidate for the next Fed Chairman but preferred him to continue as Treasury Secretary. The next day, he also mentioned that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is also a candidate. This uncertainty has also brought a certain wait-and-see sentiment to the financial markets.
Odo Finance's RWA Platform Layout: Odo Finance announced the acquisition of Strangelove, aiming to accelerate the development of a full-stack RWA (Real World Assets) platform. This move shows that traditional financial institutions are paying attention to the integration of blockchain and real-world assets, which may positively impact the integration of the cryptocurrency market and the real economy in the future.
Trump's NATO and Ukraine-Related Remarks: Trump stated that he would provide advanced weapon support to Ukraine through NATO, and that the NATO agreement has been fully approved. He also mentioned that the U.S. would provide 'top-tier weapons' to Ukraine through NATO, with European allies covering the costs, while threatening that if an agreement is not reached between Russia and Ukraine within 50 days, secondary sanctions of 'up to 100% tariffs' would be imposed on Russia. This series of geopolitical events may have a potential impact on global financial markets, including the cryptocurrency market.
II. Today's Mainstream Cryptocurrency Trend Analysis
BTC
After surging yesterday, Bitcoin faced selling pressure and entered a continuous downtrend. The current pullback has caused the mid-band in the four-hour chart to be broken. In the short term, the rebound position can reference the lower band nearby, roughly in the range of 105,600 - 104,500. The support strength in this range will play a key role in Bitcoin's subsequent trend, and if it stabilizes here, a rebound may occur; conversely, if it continues to break down, it may trigger a larger decline.
ETH
Ethereum's trend is basically synchronized with Bitcoin, also dipping into the previous consolidation range. As analyzed yesterday, if it substantially breaks below 2,900, it is likely to continue with a consolidating struggle. However, if it effectively breaks below 2,900, bulls will need to temporarily avoid risk, as this may indicate a trend change, and bears will take the lead.
A special reminder for everyone, CPI data will be released tonight. The cryptocurrency market is volatile, so please keep a close eye on the actual market changes and manage risk carefully; do not be complacent.
III. Bitcoin's Pullback After Hitting New Highs and Market Outlook
Bitcoin recently broke its historical high, reaching $123,250, and quickly faced a pullback. This intense fluctuation has drawn widespread attention from the market. As of July 15, Bitcoin's price has fallen to $117,920, breaking below the short-term support level of $118,800 indicated by CoinGlass liquidity data, with a pullback of about 4.3%.
During the pullback process, we need to be cautious of the risk of 'pump and dump'. When Bitcoin pulls back to around $120,500, any brief buy support in the market is likely a 'bull trap' behavior by short-term funds to attract subsequent bullish entries. From historical experience, this kind of 'false support' during the initial stage of a high pullback often comes with the risk of 'pump and dump'. For investors who chase high entries, being trapped could lead to significant losses.
From a technical analysis perspective, this pullback was not without warning. Data from the global cryptocurrency perpetual contract market shows that total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $843 million, with short position liquidations amounting to $549 million. The concentration of short liquidations reflects the earlier release of bullish sentiment, while also indicating a technical correction demand after a short-term overheating of the market. Before Bitcoin effectively breaks through the $130,000 psychological barrier, it is expected to repeatedly test support levels below.
Although the short-term pullback is concerning, in the long run, the bullish logic for Bitcoin has not changed. On one hand, institutional funds continue to flow into the cryptocurrency market, with the growth of compliant ETF holdings and the proactive layout of traditional financial institutions providing solid support for the market.
On the other hand, the current macroeconomic environment's expectations for easing and the recovery of risk asset preferences also form a positive outlook for Bitcoin. However, this does not mean we can blindly chase highs. Professional investors have begun using hedging tools to cope with short-term volatility risks, and this 'long position and short protection' strategy is worth emulating for ordinary investors.
Currently, the market has not shown typical 'Fear of Missing Out (FOMO)' sentiment, indicating a relatively mature market. This also means that during the pullback process, there may be better positioning opportunities. When prices pull back to near key support levels and market sentiment stabilizes, phased positioning is more cost-effective than chasing highs.
IV. Key Events Influencing Market Direction
This week is a critical week for the cryptocurrency market, with three major variables influencing the subsequent market trends.
U.S. June CPI Data: Tonight (July 15 at 20:30), the U.S. will release the June Consumer Price Index. This data is closely related to the Federal Reserve's subsequent monetary policy direction. If the CPI growth rate unexpectedly falls, expectations for interest rate cuts will rise, which may boost risk assets, including cryptocurrencies; conversely, if inflation proves stickier than expected, concerns about interest rate hikes may resurface, putting further downward pressure on the cryptocurrency market.
Super Earnings Week: Tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla will release their earnings reports this week. The performance and forward guidance of these tech giants will not only affect the sentiment in the U.S. stock market but may also spill over into the cryptocurrency sector. During liquidity-driven cycles, the correlation between tech stocks and cryptocurrencies is quite evident, and the quality of the earnings reports from these giants will become an important catalyst for short-term market fluctuations.
U.S. House of Representatives 'Cryptocurrency Week': This week, the U.S. House of Representatives is focusing on the cryptocurrency sector, with the review process of three key cryptocurrency bills attracting attention. If breakthroughs are made in regulatory frameworks and compliance paths, it will inject policy certainty into the cryptocurrency market, which is beneficial for the industry ecosystem in the long term; conversely, if the review encounters obstacles or negative signals, short-term market sentiment may be suppressed.
In summary, Bitcoin's pullback after hitting new highs is a process of market risk release and a return to rationality. In the face of potential 'pump and dump' risks, investors should remain vigilant, avoid blindly chasing highs, and patiently wait for reasonable positioning opportunities during the pullback. This week's CPI data, Super Earnings Week, and the review of cryptocurrency bills will be important indicators for judging the subsequent market trend. In the increasingly intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears, everyone should maintain a mindset of 'long-term bullish without chasing highs, short-term cautious without panic' to grasp structural opportunities amidst the volatility in the cryptocurrency space.
Remember to keep an eye on my account, as I will bring you more timely and professional cryptocurrency analysis and insights, so let's navigate the cryptocurrency space together and reap the rewards!
