From the perspective of the Air Force, in this round of ETH market, most people choose to short, which is fundamentally due to a deviation between market perception, judgment logic, and actual trends. This deviation is caused by the inertia of bear market thinking, manipulation by major players, and misjudgment of policy value. The specific logic is as follows:
1. Inertia of Bear Market Thinking: Using 'old experience' to fit 'new market'
Investors who have experienced a bear market are prone to form a mindset of 'decline is the norm, rise is a trap', which directly affects their judgment on ETH's rise:
1. Misleading intuition of 'a lot of increase must lead to a drop'
When ETH rapidly rises from 2500 USD to 3000 USD (two consecutive days of gains, a single-day increase of 10%), most people instinctively think 'the speed of increase is too fast = reaching a peak', and thus short. Even when there is a pullback, they add to their short positions, trying to 'wait for the drop to take profits', but in a bull market, 'pullbacks are opportunities to enter', resulting in short positions being liquidated due to continuous increases.
2. Misjudgment of 'mean reversion' intervals
During the bear market, ETH oscillated long-term between 2100-2700 USD, and this range is implicitly regarded as 'reasonable valuation'. After breaking 2700 USD, many people believe 'deviation from the mean = overheating', firmly convinced that the price will fall back. With the influx of funds and the enhancement of ecological value, the mean will inevitably break through the old range; judging a bull market by bear market intervals will inevitably lead to missed opportunities.
2. Induction by Major Players: Creating 'counter-trend traps' using 'short-seller dense areas'
Major players are adept at harvesting retail short positions through 'rising - inducing shorts - explosive shorts', and ETH's rise is currently dominated by this logic:
The 'dull rise to induce shorts' at key resistance levels
Major players intentionally 'slowly increase' at recognized resistance levels (such as 2500, 3000 USD) — not breaking through all at once, but oscillating repeatedly, leading retail investors to mistakenly believe 'failure to break resistance = imminent pullback'. At this time, a large number of retail investors place short orders below the resistance level (such as shorting near 3000 USD), forming a 'short-seller dense area'. The inevitable result of 'explosive rise of shorts'
When short positions are sufficient, major players break through the defense line through 'spot buying + contract long', triggering stop-losses and liquidation. For example, on the day ETH broke 3000 USD, Binance's 24-hour short positions liquidated over 100 million USD, a clear case of major player harvesting.
In short: today's ETH is no longer what it used to be, entering the 'institutional era', logically it is already 'new BTC' — using old perspectives to view new assets inevitably leads to incorrect short choices.
