Have you noticed: Recently Bitcoin has been "flying high", but there is one index that Altcoin enthusiasts are observing more closely than the BTC price, which is the Altcoin Season Index (ASI)! Sounds interesting, right? Let me break down this chart for you to understand, and then see if the Altcoin Season will "knock at the door"!
📌What is ASI that is so "hot"?
Simply put, ASI is a measure of what percentage of the TOP 50 (or TOP 100) Altcoins are performing better than Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
- ASI >= 75: Altcoin Season (Altcoins "blast off", money pours into Altcoins massively).
- ASI <= 25: Bitcoin Season (Bitcoin is "king", Altcoins "hibernate").
- In the middle: The market is "hesitating", waiting for signals.
Currently on the chart: ASI is at 39! It’s not 75 to be called an official Altcoin Season, but it’s also no longer in the "death" zone below 25 of Bitcoin Season. It’s in the middle, but importantly, the trend is starting to rise from the low area!
History repeats itself? Looking back at previous Altcoin Season peaks on the chart (like late 2017, mid-2019, early 2021, mid-2021, mid-2022, early 2024), you will see that ASI often has strong "bounces" after "hibernating" in the low area. After each "dipping" in the Bitcoin Season area, the market tends to seek opportunities in Altcoins.
Recent trend: After a long time "dipping" in the Bitcoin Season area (late 2023 - early 2024), ASI made a "leap" up to nearly 75% at the beginning of 2024 (as mentioned in meme coin seasons, Dencun, DePIN). It then corrected, but is currently beginning to rise from the low area (from about 20-30 to 39). This is a "stirring" signal!
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Combine with other signals:
- Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is slightly decreasing: Remember, BTC Dominance is showing signs of rejection from the resistance area of 65% and is slightly decreasing? When BTC.D decreases, money tends to flow from Bitcoin to Altcoins. This is the "perfect pair" signaling the Altcoin Season, guys!
- Huge ETF money flow: Huge money flowing into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs (like +716.63 million USD ETH and +799.5 million USD BTC) could be a premise for the transition to Altcoins as institutional investors seek higher profits after BTC has grown strongly.
- Market sentiment: After Bitcoin has "flown" too high, investor sentiment starts to look for "x" opportunities in smaller-cap Altcoins, which are more volatile.
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So, will the Altcoin Season "knock at the door"?
Although ASI hasn't officially "turned green" at 75%, with it starting to rise from the low area and signals from decreasing BTC Dominance, along with large amounts of money waiting to flow, the likelihood of the Altcoin Season "knocking at the door" is EXTREMELY HIGH!
For those holding Altcoins, get ready to "peak"! Narratives like DeFi, Layer-2, GameFi, AI, DePIN, or even Meme coins could become the "stars" of this season.
A small note (but important): Remember to research each project carefully and manage risks (diversifying, setting stop-loss) to avoid being "caught off guard"! The crypto market is extremely volatile, don’t miss the boat and then regret it!
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