Recently, Dogecoin (DOGE) has become the focus of the cryptocurrency market due to a series of positive technical patterns and market dynamics. From technical breakthroughs to capital inflows, multiple signals indicate that it may be approaching a critical juncture for reversing its long-term trend.
Technical patterns are releasing strong bullish signals.
Over the past three years, Dogecoin has quietly constructed a cup-and-handle pattern on the monthly chart, with the current cup-and-handle portion gradually taking shape and trading volume increasing simultaneously. The relative strength index (RSI) is in a neutral zone, laying the groundwork for subsequent trends. Market analysis indicates that if it can break through the $0.30 level, it may trigger significant upward momentum, with a $1 target also coming into view.
The technical breakthrough in mid-July was even more symbolic: on July 16th, it closed at $0.1885, forming a hammer candlestick, releasing a trend reversal signal; subsequently, the cup-and-handle pattern was completed, accompanied by a surge in trading volume to $10.74 million, with a short-term target pointing to $0.24. The price has regained a foothold at the $0.20 support level, which is significant as it has recovered this psychological barrier lost since May 2025. Similar patterns had propelled Dogecoin to surge in 2021, and historical experience adds imagination to the current trend.
At the same time, Dogecoin has broken the pattern of lower highs over the past few months, breaking the downward trend line, with the weekly closing price above the resistance level, turning the $0.19 area from resistance to support. The key confirmation point is to maintain above $0.19 to verify the validity of the breakout; breaking through $0.22 would completely eliminate the bearish structure.
Market dynamics and capital flows are providing support.
In the overall market environment, altcoins are performing well, with Dogecoin benefiting significantly. The altcoin season index jumped 30% within a week to 39/100, while Bitcoin's dominance has decreased to 61.95% (a weekly drop of 1.3%), indicating funds are flowing from Bitcoin to altcoins. This week, Dogecoin surged by 17.7%, far exceeding Bitcoin's 9.88%, highlighting its strength.
The capital situation is also positive: large wallets have accumulated a total of 3.4 billion Dogecoins since January 2025, showing that whales are continuing to accumulate. The weighted financing rate for holdings is +0.0163%, with bulls occupying the dominant position. Open interest has risen by 14% to $3.12 billion, with new capital quickly flowing in; strong spot demand further supports prices. Additionally, meme coins are driven by risk appetite, with the current greed and fear index reaching 70/greed, while derivatives activity is active, with perpetual contract trading volume reaching $18.2 trillion (a monthly increase of 37.87%).
Short-term trends and potential challenges.
In terms of short-term performance, Dogecoin surged by 7.7% within 24 hours to $0.213, then attempted a pullback in the $0.205 range, currently trading at $0.23227 with an 11.56% increase, breaking through $0.23000 and approaching the 24-hour high of $0.23434. Although current selling pressure (60.38%) is still higher than buy orders (39.62%), buyer activity continues to rise. If momentum continues, it is expected to challenge the $0.23500 resistance level.
It is noteworthy that Dogecoin is approaching a key sell wall at $0.293. If it breaks through successfully, there is no major resistance above, which may open up stronger upward space. However, the overbought RSI (81.82) suggests there may be a need for short-term consolidation, and the breakout situation at the $0.22 resistance level will be crucial to confirming the cup-and-handle pattern target. Additionally, aggressive leveraged trading may trigger sharp price fluctuations, so caution is needed regarding short-term pullback risks.
Future outlook: Can the upward trend continue?
Dogecoin has shown a strong recovery from its lowest point of $0.14339, with technical breakthroughs and altcoin momentum resonating with whale holdings to lay the foundation for its rise. If bulls can maintain the current momentum, it may not just be a short-term rebound, but pave the way for a larger scale trend.
Overall, the current technical patterns and market environment for Dogecoin are leaning positively. Future tracking of key price level breakthroughs and support situations will be essential to determine if it can ultimately reverse its long-term trend.