Key Takeaways:
DOGE has gained 18% this week and is forming a bullish double bottom pattern on the daily chart.
A breakout above $0.25 could trigger a 300% rally toward $1 by end of 2025, according to technical and historical signals.
On-chain data shows rising open interest, growing spot demand, and reduced selling pressure from long-term holders.
Dogecoin (DOGE) is showing strong signs of a major bullish breakout as key technical and on-chain metrics align. The memecoin is currently trading above $0.24 after gaining 18% this week, and analysts say the setup could fuel a 300% rally if one critical price level is reclaimed.
DOGE has formed a double bottom reversal pattern on the daily chart, with the neckline positioned at $0.25. A confirmed breakout above this level could pave the way for a move to $0.48—last seen in December 2024—and potentially open the door to $1 by year-end, according to trader projections.
DOGE Forms Bullish Double Bottom After Breaking Downtrend
Dogecoin’s price recently broke out of a long-term descending trendline, signaling a shift in momentum. After surging to $0.243, DOGE entered a consolidation range between $0.19 and $0.21, widely interpreted as a healthy retest of the breakout zone.
A daily close above $0.25 would complete the double bottom structure and trigger further upside, analysts say.
On the weekly chart, DOGE is also trading within an ascending broadening wedge, a pattern associated with parabolic breakouts. According to crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade, the asset appears poised to test the upper boundary of the wedge, a move that could “set the foundation for a 300% rally.”
“Once DOGE reclaims the $0.25 neckline, the path to $0.47 and even $1 becomes technically viable,” Tardigrade said in a post.
Open Interest and Spot Demand Signal Real Momentum
On-chain data adds weight to the bullish outlook. DOGE’s futures open interest (OI) has soared 67% in July, rising from $1.70 billion to $2.85 billion, indicating renewed speculative interest in the asset.
Importantly, funding rates remain neutral, suggesting that the rally isn’t overheated by excessive leverage—a sign that momentum could continue without immediate reversal risk.
In the spot market, cumulative volume delta (CVD) continues to climb, indicating net spot buying pressure. This trend signals that real demand—not just derivatives speculation—is supporting DOGE’s upward move.
Long-Term Holders Signal Reduced Selling Pressure
Dogecoin’s Long-Term Holder Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (LTH-NUPL) indicator has now entered the “Optimism-Anxiety” zone, a historical precursor to major rallies. This psychological threshold means long-term holders are sitting on moderate profits and are less likely to sell, allowing new capital inflows to drive price higher.
This same LTH-NUPL transition was seen before DOGE’s explosive rallies in 2021 and 2024, reinforcing bullish expectations.
“Long-term holders shifting from fear to cautious optimism has historically marked the early stages of DOGE’s biggest rallies,” noted on-chain analysts at IntoTheBlock.
What Comes Next?
If DOGE confirms a breakout above $0.25, the next major target lies at $0.47–$0.48, followed by $1 if macro and market momentum continue. Analysts caution that rejection at the neckline could lead to short-term consolidation, but the broader structure remains bullish.
With rising interest from retail and institutional investors, a healthier spot market, and historical breakout signals in play, Dogecoin’s 2025 run may be just beginning, according to Cointelegraph.
