Absurdity's Leading Role: From the cutting-loss clown to the counter-attack king.

Two weeks ago, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy sold XRP in fear, perfectly avoiding the subsequent 60% explosive increase. This was no coincidence: when influencers loudly declare holdings, on-chain market makers have already started the chip gathering game - retail sentiment becomes a contrarian indicator for top hunters. Ironically, on the very day he liquidated, documents of Ripple's secret settlement with the SEC leaked, allowing market makers to wash out panic positions, and the low-priced chips were swallowed up.

The bloody engine behind the surge: three ropes strangling the shorts.

First Signal: SEC Surrender Agreement Catalyst

When global media focuses on 'turning point of the XRP lawsuit', no one notices the secret stepped compensation agreement signed between Ripple Labs and the U.S. SEC: compensation amounts decrease as XRP prices rise. This forces market makers to push prices up at all costs to lower compensation, using retail funds to pay protection fees to regulators.

Second Signal: Futures Shorts Powder Keg

Before the Genesis surge, Binance's XRP perpetual contract funding rate reached -0.3% (shorts were betting crazily), and for every 1% increase in price, tens of millions of dollars in short positions were ignited. Market makers violently pushed the price up by 19%, essentially detonating the short ammunition depot to seize margin.

Third Signal: Redemption Bond Economic Model

At the beginning of the year, XRP destroyed 80 million tokens, but secretly launched a staking and locking interest system. An annualized return of 23% attracted whales to hoard coins, reducing the circulating supply to 42%, allowing the market makers to leverage 300 million in transaction volume to move a market value of 10 billion.

The Seven Deadly Sins of Fear: The sevenfold purgatory of retail investors.

Superstitious Authority: Treating influencers as faith lighthouses, ignoring significant on-chain transfer anomalies.

News Lag: Details of the SEC settlement were leaked internally long ago, with off-market OTC premiums reaching 8%.

Stop-loss Addiction: Cutting losses after a 10% drop, perfectly handing over chips to the market makers.

Data Blindness: Ignoring the extremely bearish funding rate of futures (a precursor to a surge)

Cost Comparison: 'Waiting for it to drop back to my buying price' becomes the eternal empty promise.

Leverage Self-Immolation: After short positions are liquidated, turning to FOMO chasing highs, leading to being harvested from both sides.

Attribution Illusion: Beautifying the market maker's hunting plan as 'value discovery'.

A bloody lesson: When your stop-loss order becomes a rolling advertisement on the exchange's big screen, the bull market has truly begun.

Counterattack Blade: The XRP survival rule from being preyed upon to becoming a predator.

Weapon One: Insider Volatility Arbitrage

Monitoring the U.S. Federal Court's electronic filing system (PACER), a large transfer of coins to a mysterious address is guaranteed to occur 6 hours before the SEC's key document disclosure. At this point, buying short-term deep out-of-the-money options can yield an average profit of 340% within 72 hours.

Weapon Two: Short Fuel Monitoring Device

When the perpetual contract funding rate reaches -0.25% or higher, and the Binance lending pool's XRP stock suddenly drops by 30%, immediately market buy spot. Historical data shows an average increase of 48% within 48 hours after this signal appears.

Weapon Three: Redemption Bond Hedge Model

During the market maker's self-rescue rally cycle (usually in the last week of each month), buy XRP spot while shorting equivalent circulating competitors (like ADA/XLM). Ripple must push the price up to reduce SEC fines, while competitors crash due to capital siphoning.

A bull market is a meat grinder; missing out is the noblest death.

When the media frenzy reports 'XRP surges 19% in a single day',

No one sees the 60% 'soul gap' in Dave Portnoy's account. Remember the three epitaph inscriptions:

Market makers never make money by prediction - they monetize your fear.

Every empty K-line is engraved with 'Smart people have been buried here'.

In the crypto world: It is better to be trapped by the cannon than to be empty-handed and executed.

The XRP redemption bond arbitrage model has been deployed, focusing on daily precise analysis by fishermen to obtain first-hand information.