Brothers, the senior analyst mode of Aiers is activated! Today in the morning session, BTC is fluctuating with low volume around 120,000 USD (specifically in the 120,054 area). This is not a boring sideways movement! Combined with the three key bills passed in the early morning (especially the GENIUS bill which may be signed today), the market is flowing with hidden currents, let me highlight the key points!
Current core market password: silent waters run deep, competing for the 'watershed'!
Upper pressure line: 121,000 USD!
Look at the pink horizontal line in the chart (watershed)! The price has been pushed down several times when it approached it. 121,000 USD (marked position in the chart) is currently a visibly strong resistance level! This is the key dividing point between bullish and bearish in the short term.
The commission ratio data (+0.02%) reveals mysteries: Although it shows slightly more buying pressure (positive), the value is too small (only 0.02%)! What does this indicate? The force wanting to break through is still hesitating, and large funds (the main force) have not yet launched a total offensive!
Hard support below: 118,000 USD!
Look at the blue thick line below the chart (support level)! The 118,000 USD area forms a solid defense line! The 4-hour chart shows large orders supporting the bottom (marked on the chart), this is a position that the bulls (bullish side) are guarding fiercely, it can be called an 'iron bottom'!
Where is it stuck now? In a narrow fluctuation zone!
Current price fluctuating narrowly between 120,000 - 121,000 USD (as shown in the chart where the K-line height is compressed). A typical 'waiting for signals' pattern!
Volume and order signal: What is the main force waiting for?
The trading volume has clearly shrunk (the bars on the chart are shorter): This is not a bad thing! This shows that ahead of significant news (Trump's signature), large funds and retail investors have chosen to wait and see, and temporarily no one is 'acting rashly'. A quiet period is often the calm before the storm.
The commission ratio is slightly positive but weak (+0.02%): This verifies that the current state is 'weak balance'. The market is waiting for a driving force to break the balance - this driving force is likely the final signing of the GENIUS bill!
How will the three bills from early morning (especially GENIUS) affect today's BTC?
Super good news, but the market has not fully reflected it yet! Why?
No matter how strong the expectations are, it depends on 'the shoe dropping': Although the market knows good news is coming (the 9 trillion retirement fund channel is opening), only when Trump officially signs can it be considered the 'announcement moment' of policy landing! Large funds need to wait for this certainty.
High position digestion of chips requires time: Around 120,000 USD has accumulated early profits and positions to break even. Huge benefits can make these chips more willing to 'hold' rather than sell, but complete digestion and formation of a breakthrough requires collective funds.
Could the main force be 'pressing the market to absorb chips'? Before the announcement of major good news, the price remains fluctuating below the key pressure level, and it cannot be ruled out that there is force intentionally controlling the rhythm, using market hesitation to collect chips. This is a common tactic among professional traders.
Key inference of today's trend:
Scenario One (high probability): Fluctuating wait, about to explode!
Core intraday fluctuation range: 118,000 (iron bottom support) - 121,000 (strong pressure at the watershed)! It is normal to move back and forth within this box.
Keep an eye on Trump's pen! Once the GENIUS bill is signed and announced (likely today), the influx of buy orders could form a collective force, violently pushing through the 121,000 USD pressure! After breaking and stabilizing, the space opens up, and the short-term target can look at the previous high or even higher. This is the most likely path.
Scenario Two (low probability): Unexpected 'false drop'?
If the signing is delayed or if officials unexpectedly deliver negative news (for example, Fed's Daly pouring cold water), it may trigger a short-term panic drop below 120,000, testing the 118,000 iron bottom. But as long as the large order support at 118,000 does not break (quickly recover), this drop is a 'golden pit'! Under the premise that expectations for good news remain unchanged, this could actually be a chance for large funds (including institutions waiting to enter) to buy at a discount, making the rebound even stronger.
Core lifeline for risk control: 118,000 USD!
Regardless of whether the good news lands immediately, holding above 118,000 is maintaining the bullish bottom line. This position represents the determination of large funds to defend, and once it effectively breaks (for example, if the 4-hour chart's real body bearish candle breaks and does not recover), the short-term technical pattern will be damaged, leading to a deeper pullback (but the probability is low, especially on the eve of major good news).
Aiers' summary and operational insights:
Today's BTC 4-hour chart is a standard 'building momentum' structure! Technical fluctuations are waiting for signals, while the fundamentals (the legal assurance of opening a 9 trillion USD channel) are the real 'nuclear button'!
Key points should be etched in your mind:
Upper breakout point: 121,000 USD (watershed stabilizing = charge signal)
Lower life-and-death line: 118,000 USD (iron bottom not broken = no major worries)
Core focus on the market:
When will trading volume surge sharply? (Both breakout or drop need volume confirmation)
Instant news of Trump signing the GENIUS bill! This is the ultimate fuse to ignite the market!
Did the Federal Reserve officials’ speeches have any 'surprises' (interference)?
Psychological advice:
Do not chase highs or kill lows! Within the fluctuation range, the risk is high on both ends.
When close to the 118,000 support and no negative news, it is a controllable risk point for rebound/layout.
Once good news is confirmed + a breakout above 121,000, you can participate in the trend and look for higher!
Aiers, today the market is watching Trump's pen, and we are focusing on key points and trading volume! This 'slow bull' BTC, once awakened by the expectation of whales entering the market, could possess astonishing power. Stay sharp, control your positions, and wait for the bloom!
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