Policy packages are continuously bombarding the crypto space, with ETH facing resistance at 3624, and the battle between bulls and bears will be revealed tonight!
Last night, ETH surged nearly 3% in one hour (3537→3624), closing closely at the high of 3620. This is no coincidence, but rather a triple policy bomb that ignited the market:
News Front
Trump's big move is gaining momentum: According to the Financial Times, the 'King of Understanding' is expected to sign an executive order this week to open up $9 trillion in 401k pension investments to cryptocurrencies (including ETH) and gold, massively exploding the imagination for incremental funds!
Significant progress on congressional bills: The House has passed all
(GENIUS Act) (Promoting Innovation) - to be handed over for Trump's signature (possibly today)
(CLARITY Act) (Regulatory Transparency) & (Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Law) (Protecting Privacy) - to be handed over to the Senate for review
Rising expectations for interest rate cuts: Trump calls on the Federal Reserve to cut rates + Daley states 'two rate cuts within the year are reasonable', liquidity easing benefits risk assets.
Technical Perspective
Strong Volume and Price: A bullish candle (closing at 3620/high at 3624) with increased volume (8.58 million > average volume of 5.14 million) confirms the bulls are in control.
3624 High Pressure Zone: Two attempts to break through at the hourly level have failed, forming strong technical resistance, with a large accumulation of trapped positions and profit-taking here.
Indicator Divergence:
MACD Bullish Momentum Strong: Water Gold Cross (DIF 54.21 / DEA 45.15), growing red bars (18.13).
Bollinger Bands Overbought: Price has broken out of the upper band (3550), with a short-term technical need to pull back to the middle band (3450), but the long-term channel is upward.
Core Support: 3540-3529 (time support + washout zone) serves as the bullish defense line, with 3524 (previous low) as the lifeline.
Tycoon’s outlook for the future:
Policy tailwind (pension expectations + bill implementation) is the current core driving force, but the technical pressure at 3624 remains unbroken, putting the market in a delicate balance between 'strong expectations' and 'tight pressure'. Two major paths ahead:
Breakthrough Path: If the (GENIUS Act) is swiftly signed or if a pension executive order strikes, breaking through 3624 with volume will open up upward space (target 3650+), initiating a new trend segment.
Pullback Path: If the favorable news is delayed or falls short of expectations, there is a high probability of a pullback to the 3540 area to test support under the pressure of 3624. Maintaining the 3540-3524 range is considered a healthy adjustment, with potential for an upward momentum after consolidating; if there is an unexpected breakout below 3524, be wary of a deep pullback to 3450 seeking balance.
Tonight is destined to be ETH's 'Policy Judgment Day'! Trump's signature pen and the Senate's agenda will determine whether this $9 trillion 'lifeblood' can flow into the crypto space, and whether ETH will choose to 'break through violently' or 'pull back to conserve energy'. When technical high pressure meets policy variables, which side do you lean towards betting on? Follow the tycoon for timely signal breakdowns to see through the chaos for real opportunities!#ETH突破3600 $ETH
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