PEPE has retraced 30% from its high, currently priced at 0.01334, right on the upper edge of the 2-week value area, RSI 39.7 slightly oversold, contract positions reduced by 6.8% over 24h but the long-short ratio has risen to 3.67, indicating imminent short covering. A pullback to the 0.0124-0.0125 area (POC+HVN) can be an opportunity to buy low, stop loss at 0.0119, target at 0.0140-0.0148, risk-reward ratio 2.7; if it falls below 0.0119, short extension may occur, do not blindly catch falling knives.
Key Interval Structure
1. Value Anchoring Area: POC 0.01244 (maximum transaction in 2 weeks 331.6B), balanced between long and short above, dense buying below.
2. High Volume Area:
• 0.01225-0.01250 Range (HVN Group): 70% of trades in the past 20 days concentrated here, forming strong support.
• 0.01015-0.01022 area (secondary HVN): if it quickly breaks down, it could be seen as a short trap.
3. Low Volume Gap:
• 0.01168-0.01184 (LVN): Once broken, it could fall to 0.0108 due to inertia.
• 0.01384-0.01400 (upper LVN): After breaking, it can directly test 0.0148.
4. 70% Volume Coverage Area: 0.00952-0.01352, current price near the upper edge, short-term bias is neutral to bearish, but not yet out of the value area.
Momentum Verification
• Near POC 0.01244 Up/Down ≈ 49/51, balanced between long and short; the previous LVN 0.01384 Up Vol accounted for only 46%, indicating short dominance.
• Net outflow of contracts in the past 4h -1.106 billion, selling pressure concentrated, but 15m has seen a net inflow of 1.72 million, indicating early signs of short covering.
Auxiliary Judgment
• Price still holds above MA200 1h 0.01243 (+7.3%), 1h Bollinger Band middle track 0.01345 is the intraday dividing line between long and short.
• Positions decreased by 6.8% over 24h, while the long-short ratio rose from 3.13 to 3.67, indicating faster reduction of long positions, and short-term sentiment is overly pessimistic, likely to trigger a rebound.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Enter a small long position at current price 0.0133-0.0134, stop loss at 0.0129 (below HVN outer side), target at 0.0140/0.0148, risk-reward ratio 1.8.
Conservative: Wait for a pullback to 0.0124-0.0125 (POC+HVN Group) to see a 15m volume surge bullish candle, Up Vol > 60% before re-entering, stop loss at 0.0119, target at 0.0138/0.0148, risk-reward ratio 2.7.
Conservative: Only pursue longs after a 1h close breaks above 0.01385 (upper LVN) and volume increases to 1.5 times the average, stop loss at 0.0133, target at 0.0148, risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Risk Warning
• If the 1h close falls below 0.0119 (recent HVN lower edge + MA200), the strategy is invalidated, and one can consider going short, target 0.0108.
• A sudden change in macro sentiment or BTC breaking below 58k will drag the MEME sector down, need to monitor in real-time.
• Control position ≤1%, avoid high volatility periods during US stock market opening.
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