Price closely adheres to 10 dollar POC, with upper 10.18 sell wall pressing down and lower 9.7 HVN supporting; short term with high short and low long in the range of 9.7-10.18, break through to chase orders, stop loss if it falls, profit-loss ratio 2.3, position ≤1%, beware of the flash crash risk caused by contract reduction of 5.75%.

Key range structure

1. Value anchoring: POC 10.037, accounting for 266 million trading volume, both bulls and bears repeatedly traded here.

2. High trading volume area (HVN): 9.706-9.947 five continuous levels, each >20 million, forming a strong support zone; above 10.067-10.157 is a short-term resistance zone.

3. Low trading volume gap (LVN): 8.44-8.50 total of 3 levels <3 million, if retested will quickly slide to 8.0.

4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 8.865-10.278, current price located on the upper inside, not overbought or oversold.

Momentum verification

• Up Volume 57% above POC, buyers slightly dominate; Up Volume near 10.18 drops to 48%, selling pressure rises.

• 4h contract net inflow +202k, followed by 8h-1d continuous outflow, total -1.26m, main force short-term raised and then reduced positions.

Auxiliary judgment

• Bollinger Bands: Price at 63.8%, upper band 10.178, which is the sell wall position; MA200 9.64, deviation +3.8%, slightly bullish but not extreme.

• Positions: OI -5.75% within 5d, long-short ratio 1.92→1.93, funding rate slightly positive, bulls not out of control.

Order book anomaly

• Sell orders 27/48/60 three levels hanging at 10.9 million, far from current price, belongs to 'trap to lure shorts'; near end 10.1-10.5 sell wall 1.45 million, suppressing short term.

Market cycle

In the stage of oscillation and bottom building after a large-scale decline, range 8.865-10.278, waiting for direction selection.

Trading strategy

High short and low long in range

• Entry: Aggressive 9.70-9.75 retest HVN and Up Volume >55% to go long; Conservative 10.15-10.18 LVN breakout and volume 1.5 times to chase long.

• Stop loss: Long position 9.65 (recent HVN 9.706 outer side -0.5×ATR≈0.05); short position 10.23.

• Target: Long position 10.037 POC or 10.15 HVN; Short position 9.85 or 9.70.

• Profit-loss ratio: Long position (10.037-9.75)/(9.75-9.65)=2.87; Short position (10.18-9.85)/(10.23-10.18)=6.6, conservative average 2.3.

Risk warning

• If 9.65 is lost, the range breaks down, target 8.86 VAL, stop loss immediately.

• If 10.23 breaks out with volume, range breaks up, target 10.5-10.88, short position stop loss then reverse to chase long.

• Control position ≤1%, avoid high volatility news periods.

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