Price closely adheres to 10 dollar POC, with upper 10.18 sell wall pressing down and lower 9.7 HVN supporting; short term with high short and low long in the range of 9.7-10.18, break through to chase orders, stop loss if it falls, profit-loss ratio 2.3, position ≤1%, beware of the flash crash risk caused by contract reduction of 5.75%.
Key range structure
1. Value anchoring: POC 10.037, accounting for 266 million trading volume, both bulls and bears repeatedly traded here.
2. High trading volume area (HVN): 9.706-9.947 five continuous levels, each >20 million, forming a strong support zone; above 10.067-10.157 is a short-term resistance zone.
3. Low trading volume gap (LVN): 8.44-8.50 total of 3 levels <3 million, if retested will quickly slide to 8.0.
4. 70% trading volume coverage area: 8.865-10.278, current price located on the upper inside, not overbought or oversold.
Momentum verification
• Up Volume 57% above POC, buyers slightly dominate; Up Volume near 10.18 drops to 48%, selling pressure rises.
• 4h contract net inflow +202k, followed by 8h-1d continuous outflow, total -1.26m, main force short-term raised and then reduced positions.
Auxiliary judgment
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 63.8%, upper band 10.178, which is the sell wall position; MA200 9.64, deviation +3.8%, slightly bullish but not extreme.
• Positions: OI -5.75% within 5d, long-short ratio 1.92→1.93, funding rate slightly positive, bulls not out of control.
Order book anomaly
• Sell orders 27/48/60 three levels hanging at 10.9 million, far from current price, belongs to 'trap to lure shorts'; near end 10.1-10.5 sell wall 1.45 million, suppressing short term.
Market cycle
In the stage of oscillation and bottom building after a large-scale decline, range 8.865-10.278, waiting for direction selection.
Trading strategy
High short and low long in range
• Entry: Aggressive 9.70-9.75 retest HVN and Up Volume >55% to go long; Conservative 10.15-10.18 LVN breakout and volume 1.5 times to chase long.
• Stop loss: Long position 9.65 (recent HVN 9.706 outer side -0.5×ATR≈0.05); short position 10.23.
• Target: Long position 10.037 POC or 10.15 HVN; Short position 9.85 or 9.70.
• Profit-loss ratio: Long position (10.037-9.75)/(9.75-9.65)=2.87; Short position (10.18-9.85)/(10.23-10.18)=6.6, conservative average 2.3.
Risk warning
• If 9.65 is lost, the range breaks down, target 8.86 VAL, stop loss immediately.
• If 10.23 breaks out with volume, range breaks up, target 10.5-10.88, short position stop loss then reverse to chase long.
• Control position ≤1%, avoid high volatility news periods.
Like and follow to get real-time updates!
This article is sponsored by @advertising space!
