On the evening of July 17, the 178th session of the Uweb live sharing course was held as scheduled, focusing on the theme 'Does Ethereum have a chance to set a historical new high recently?'. Host Yu Jianing (President of Uweb) engaged in an in-depth dialogue with special guest Uncle Cat (now renamed KT), providing a comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's recent trends, macroeconomic impacts, industry trends, and investment strategies. This article distills the core viewpoints of the two guests from a media perspective, offering investors a clear market insight and opportunity outlook.
Is Ethereum's strong rise approaching a new historical high?
Recently, Ethereum surged rapidly from a low of $2,000 to $3,400, with a cumulative increase of nearly 10%, just a step away from the previous high of $4,100. In the live broadcast, Uncle Cat analyzed the three core logic points behind Ethereum's rise: first, favorable macro policies are driving the trend, such as the expected interest rate cut in September and the advancement of the U.S. cryptocurrency legislation; second, a capital overflow effect, where funds flowed into high-risk assets like Ethereum after Bitcoin broke $122,000; third, improving market sentiment, as investors gradually accept the current price range and recognize Ethereum's future value more positively.
However, can Ethereum break $4,100 and set a new historical high? Uncle Cat believes that Ethereum may challenge $3,600 in the short term, but one should be wary of the resistance level at $3,468. If the breakthrough fails, a correction may occur, with $3,000 being a key support level. Yu Jianing added that Ethereum's total market cap once approached $1 trillion, and the current price is below 'book value', suggesting bottom-fishing potential, but short-term selling pressure risks should not be overlooked.
Macroeconomic environment: Opportunities and risks coexist.
Does the recent surge in the crypto market have macroeconomic support? Uncle Cat pointed out that current market liquidity is ample, with the market cap of stablecoins increasing from $170 billion to $270 billion, indicating significant capital inflow. The expectation of an interest rate cut in September has boosted risk appetite, but one should be cautious about economic data (such as inflation or retail data) indicating stagflation risks, which may lead to interest rate cuts being interpreted as a 'market rescue', triggering a market correction. Additionally, geopolitical risks (such as the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict) may be controllable in the short term, but long-term uncertainties remain.
Yu Jianing vividly compared the current market to being in the 'eye of the typhoon', appearing calm but hiding risks. Although Trump's policies have caused short-term disturbances, his strategy of 'turning small victories into great victories' provides the market with relatively stable expectations. However, if economic or policy unexpected fluctuations occur, assets like Ethereum may face deep corrections.
Is the altcoin season making a comeback? The integration of traditional finance presents new opportunities.
Will Ethereum's rise drive the 'altcoin season'? Uncle Cat stated that the traditional logic of the altcoin season has changed. Current capital is more inclined toward Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the rise of altcoins mostly being short-term 'weekend formulas', and sustainability is questionable. Some DeFi tokens (like CRV) are performing actively, but the overall altcoin market has not fully regained trust. Investors need to pay attention to the weekend capital flow to determine whether it flows into non-mainstream assets like Solana and CRV.
Yu Jianing pointed out that the real 'altcoin season' may occur in the Web3 ecosystem of Hong Kong and U.S. stocks. Stocks related to RWA (real-world assets), stablecoins, and corporate token purchases frequently show 5-10 times increases, and traditional financial institutions (such as HSBC) are accelerating their layouts, indicating a deep integration trend between crypto and traditional finance. He suggested that investors switch from a 'trading coins' mindset to a 'trading stocks' mindset, capturing Web3 opportunities in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks.
Long-term value of Ethereum: Resilience and potential coexist.
Regarding Ethereum's long-term value, Uncle Cat believes that its ecological resilience is beyond doubt. After experiencing multiple bull and bear cycles, Ethereum remains one of the most recognized public chains in the market thanks to applications in DeFi, NFT, and RWA. Although the current price has not recovered to historical highs, it has partially detached from the risk asset attributes compared to Bitcoin. Ethereum still possesses high-risk high-reward characteristics, making it suitable for long-term investors.
Yu Jianing added that Ethereum still appeals to novice investors; its market cap and ecological stability make it the second choice asset after Bitcoin. Long-term holding (1-2 years) may yield considerable returns, but one should be wary of the continued decline of the ETH/BTC exchange rate, as the possibility of a short-term trend reversal is low.
Correction risks and investment strategies.
If a correction occurs over the weekend, which levels are worth paying attention to? Uncle Cat suggests focusing on Bitcoin's support levels at $113,000 and $100,000 - $97,000; if it drops to $97,000, it may be a 'golden pit'. For Ethereum, attention should be paid to the support level at $3,000. Short-term investors should take a step-by-step approach, while long-term investors can gradually build positions during corrections. Yu Jianing emphasized that investment decisions should clarify the holding period; short-term speculation requires caution, while long-term value investment offers better cost-effectiveness.
Moreover, both guests reminded that the rumors of selling 80,000 Bitcoins have drawn market attention, but the current buying power is strong, and the short-term impact is limited. Investors should closely monitor policy dynamics (such as the U.S. cryptocurrency legislation) and U.S. stock earnings reports to comprehensively assess market trends.
Future outlook: Seize the dividends of the integration of Web3 and traditional finance.
At the end of the live broadcast, Yu Jianing urged investors to actively participate in Uweb's Hong Kong RWA course (July 31 - August 4) and seize the dividends of the integration of Web3 and traditional finance through systematic learning of RWA, stablecoins, and Hong Kong stock investment strategies. He particularly mentioned that the Hong Kong stablecoin and RWA ecosystem will become long-term opportunities, and that systematic knowledge enhancement and role switching are more critical than short-term speculation. In addition, Uweb plans to organize a study tour to the U.S. in August to visit core institutions such as Circle and MicroStrategy, providing investors with a broader perspective.
Conclusion
The 178th session of the Uweb live course painted a panoramic view of Ethereum and the Web3 market for investors: strong short-term upward momentum, but one must be cautious of correction risks; long-term value resilience is significant, and the Web3 ecosystem integrating traditional finance holds enormous potential. Whether it is bottom-fishing Ethereum or laying out Web3 targets in Hong Kong and U.S. stocks, investors need to abandon the 'carving the boat to seek the sword' mentality, combining macro trends with technical analysis to flexibly adjust strategies. The next wave of the bull market is about to arrive, and only by enhancing understanding and switching perspectives can one stand out in this 'final dance'.
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