#AltcoinSeasonLoading Current dynamics

The BTC/USD pair continues its rapid upward dynamics, with the first cryptocurrency reaching historic highs of 122700.00 supported by two key factors: trade and cash.

Since the beginning of the week, the White House administration has been actively sending notifications to partners regarding an increase in tariffs starting August 1st by between 25%-50%. The governments of Japan, South Korea, and Brazil, which have high trade dealings with the United States, announced their receipt of the tariffs, but market participants remain focused on adjusting the rate to 30% on imports from the EU and Mexico. According to 2022 data, these countries exported goods worth 533 billion and 455 billion dollars respectively, which together account for about one-third of total U.S. imports. Investors fear that tightening conditions could increase pressure on the economy and push it into recession in the near future, especially as the latest minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve indicate that most officials are not prepared to adjust borrowing costs before the end of this year.

Experts indicate that one additional factor behind the rise in the price of 'digital gold' is market participants' concerns about the outlook for U.S. government debt. Following the passage of the (One Big Beautiful Bill Act), initiated by the White House, which represents a comprehensive economic program embodying the politician's election promises, its maximum has increased by 5 trillion dollars, becoming the largest one-time correction in U.S. history. Under these circumstances, BTC and cryptocurrencies in general are considered safe assets, which boosts their prices. However, this massive volume of purchases is currently attributed to large players, as the price of the first cryptocurrency has now become too high for retail investors. This is also confirmed by the change in Bitcoin-ETF balance, which reached 2.7175 billion USD over the week.

Support and resistance levels

The instrument has exited the sideways range between 111000.00-100000.00 and has established itself above the 121875.00 mark (Murray level [7/8]), allowing exchange rates to test targets of 125000.00 (Murray level [8/8]) and 128125.00 (Murray level [+1/8]).

Technical indicators suggest the current trend will continue: Bollinger Bands are trending upwards, the MACD indicator is increasing in the positive zone, while the stochastic indicator is moving horizontally in the overbought area. A price breakout above the upper Bollinger Band does not rule out a correction to the 112500.00 area (Murray level [4/8]), but it is unlikely to lead to a change in trend.

Resistance levels: 125000.00, 128125.00.

Support levels: 115625.00, 112500.00.