Anndy Lian
Crypto’s turning point: Legislation, data, and Bitcoin’s bull run
Global risk sentiment has been anything but stable lately, rocked by speculation that President Trump might move to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. This isn’t just political gossip. It’s a seismic event for markets. The Fed’s policies shape everything from interest rates to inflation expectations, and the mere hint of a leadership shakeup sends investors into a frenzy.
Are we facing a shift toward looser monetary policy, or could a new chair push for tighter controls? The uncertainty alone is enough to make markets jittery, and we’ve seen that play out in real time.
US equities, for instance, have been on a wild ride. The S&P 500 eked out a 0.3 per cent gain, the Dow Jones climbed 0.5 per cent, and the NASDAQ edged up 0.2 per cent, but these modest increases came after a day of whipsawing, sharp swings driven by conflicting headlines about Powell’s fate. It’s a classic case of markets trying to price in multiple scenarios at once, with no clear winner yet.
Meanwhile, US Treasury yields are telling a different story. The two-year yield dropped 4.8 basis points to 3.892 per cent, and the 10-year yield fell 2.6 basis points to 4.455 per cent after hitting a monthly peak. Lower yields often signal a flight to safety, investors piling into bonds when stocks feel too risky. That dovetails with gold’s 0.7 per cent rise to US$3,347 per ounce, a move fueLled by those same flight-to-quality bids.
The US Dollar Index adds another layer to this narrative. It took a steep 0.9 per cent dive before clawing back most of its losses to close at 98.39, down just 0.2 per cent. That resilience suggests underlying confidence in the dollar, even amidst the chaos.
In contrast, Brent crude slipped 0.3 per cent to US$69 per barrel, weighed down by government data showing weaker demand and growing inventories. Energy prices often reflect global growth expectations, and this dip hints at nagging concerns about a slowdown.
Across the Pacific, Asia’s markets are a mixed bag. Chinese tech stocks rallied briefly on news of resumed chip shipments to China, a lifeline in the ongoing US-China tech tussle, but the momentum fizzled out. Asian equity indices opened unevenly, and US equity futures suggest Wall Street might start the day in the red. It’s a fragmented picture, with no single trend dominating.
Economic data: A glimmer of relief?
Amid this turbulence, the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data offers a sliver of good news. It came in softer than expected, signaling that manufacturers aren’t passing on the full brunt of US tariffs to consumers. This is significant. Tariffs, especially those tied to Trump-era policies, have been a wildcard, could they spark inflation by driving up costs?
The weak PPI suggests not, at least not yet. If inflationary pressures stay muted, the Fed might not feel compelled to hike rates aggressively, which is generally a boon for risk assets like stocks and cryptocurrencies. It’s not a game-changer on its own, but it’s a counterweight to the political noise.
Elsewhere, Bank Indonesia’s decision to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25 per cent caught my eye. With a stable currency and lower inflation forecasts, they’re prioritising growth, a reminder that not every central bank is in tightening mode. This divergence in monetary policy could influence capital flows, potentially supporting riskier assets in emerging markets and, by extension, cryptocurrencies.
Crypto legislation: A turning point?
Now, let’s pivot to the cryptocurrency space, where something monumental is brewing. This week, the US House of Representatives is considering three bills that could redefine the role of digital assets in the financial world.
First, the GENIUS Act, already greenlit by the Senate, would bring stablecoin issuers under federal oversight, mandating strict reserve, audit, and registration rules. Stablecoins like Tether and USDC are the backbone of crypto trading, and this move could shore up their credibility, making them more palatable to traditional finance.
Second, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act aims to end the regulatory tug-of-war over whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities. By splitting oversight between the SEC and CFTC and setting clear guidelines for token issuers and trading platforms, it could resolve years of ambiguity. I’ve long argued that regulatory uncertainty has been a millstone around crypto’s neck; clarity here could unleash a wave of institutional money.
Finally, the Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act would bar the Fed from issuing a central bank digital currency. This is a win for crypto purists who view CBDCs as a threat to decentralised finance, although it also acknowledges privacy concerns that resonate beyond the crypto community. If these bills pass, we’re looking at a seismic shift; crypto could move from the fringes to the mainstream, with rules that legitimise it without stifling innovation.
Bitcoin’s technical strength
Against this backdrop, Bitcoin is flexing its muscles. On the daily chart, it’s trading well above its key exponential moving averages: the 20-day at US$112,065, the 50-day at US$107,900, the 100-day at US$103,322, and the 200-day at US$96,920. That’s a textbook bullish setup. The recent breakout above the US$118,000–US$120,000 resistance zone, a level that had capped gains for weeks, is a big deal. Add in rising trading volume and a bullish MACD crossover, and the technicals are screaming upward momentum.
If Bitcoin holds above US$121,000, the next stop could be US$125,000. But markets aren’t one-way streets. If it stumbles, the 20-day EMA at US$112,065 provides immediate support, with stronger buying likely to occur near the 50-day EMA at US$107,900. This resilience is no fluke, it’s fueled by record-high institutional flows and ETF demand, a sign that big players are doubling down.
Mid-July 2025 prediction
So, where does Bitcoin land by mid-July 2025? I’m bullish, and here’s why. After hitting a new all-time high near US$122,000, the momentum feels sustainable. Institutional adoption is accelerating—look no further than Cantor Fitzgerald’s looming US$3.5 billion acquisition of 30,000 BTC, valued at US$117,321 each, through its SPAC vehicle.
This echoes MicroStrategy’s playbook of treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, and it’s a powerful signal to other firms. With ETF demand soaring and the potential for regulatory clarity from those bills, I see Bitcoin climbing three per cent–five per cent from current levels, hitting US$125,000–US$128,000 by mid-to-late July.
That said, I’m not blind to risks. If the rally falters and Bitcoin dips below US$114,000, a pullback to US$110,000–US$112,000 could occur. That wouldn’t derail the trend; it’d be a healthy breather before the next push. As long as it stays above the 20-day EMA, the bias is up.
Zoom out, and the outlook gets even brighter. By Q4 2025, Bitcoin could reach US$130,000–US$150,000, propelled by institutional heavyweights, possible IMF endorsements, and macro tailwinds like a weaker dollar or persistent inflation fears. But that’s contingent on a stable global stage, no major wars, recessions, or black swan events. In a world this volatile, that’s a big “if.”
Stay sharp, things are about to get interesting.
Source: https://e27.co/cryptos-turning-point-legislation-data-and-bitcoins-bull-run-20250717/
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