The current price of AUCTION at 11.1 just happens to fall below the two-week POC 13.04 at 2.1×ATR, at the 46% position of the Bollinger Bands midline, short-term selling pressure at 2.13 times, but the contract OI +30% in 7 days indicates bulls are still present; a pullback to 12.30-12.49 HVN can be a low long entry, breaking below 10.90 will turn bearish, profit and loss ratio ≈2.5, position 1%.
Key Interval Structure
• Value Anchor: POC 13.04 (5.35 million USDT) — most concentrated trading between bulls and bears, Up Vol 51% above, slightly biased towards bulls
• High Volume Buffer: 12.30-12.49 HVN (4 million USDT) → First choice for pullbacks
• Low Volume Gap: 11.71-11.75 LVN (320,000 USDT) → Price can quickly pass through, confirmation of breakthrough requires volume ≥ 1.5× average
• 70% Transaction Zone: 11.72-13.85, current price is at the lower edge of the zone, considered the 'lower edge of the range' not overbought
Momentum Verification
• 12.30-12.49 HVN: Up Vol 64%, buyers dominate, meets conditions for pullback long
• 13.04 POC: Up Vol 51%, momentum neutral, only serves as a rebound target
• Near 11.10: Down Vol 58%, short-term remains bearish, need to wait for volume to decrease
Auxiliary Indicators
• MA200: 10.67, current price deviated by +4.1%, a pullback that does not break is still considered healthy
• Bollinger Bands 1h: Midline 11.12, bandwidth 0.45, price close to midline, direction to be selected
• Contract OI: -3.73% in 24 hours, but +30% in 7 days, mid-term bulls have not withdrawn
Order Book Anomaly
• Sell orders at 2.13 times, 850,000 U liquidity ambushed in the 25-59 range, short-term pressure on upward movement
• Insufficient depth of buy orders, only 110,000 U in the 8.8-8.0 area, high risk of flash crash
Market Cycle Judgment
Medium-term: Down 28% from the May peak, +18% rebound in 7 days followed by sideways movement, in the 'post-large-drop consolidation and selection' phase, range 11-14.
Trading Strategy
Aggressive: Current price 11.10-11.15 pulling back to LVN 11.71-11.75, enter long if Pin-bar+Up Vol>60% appears
Stable: Wait for a pullback to 12.30-12.49 HVN, then re-enter when Up Vol>60%
Stop Loss: 10.90 (Bollinger Bands lower band -0.5ATR)
Target: 13.04 POC, push protection after reducing position
Conservatively: If 11.71 LVN breaks down with volume, go short, stop loss at 11.90, target at 10.70 MA200
Profit and Loss Ratio
(13.04-11.10)/(11.10-10.90)=1.94/0.20≈2.5
Risk Warning
• Macro: If the market dips again, small-cap tokens will magnify the decline
• Invalid: Daily close below 10.90 or Up Vol<40%
• Risk Control: Single risk ≤ 1% of the account, avoid high funding (0.005%) periods
Operation Notice
• Avoid high volatility 1 hour before and after the East American market opens
• If not activated within 2 hours after entry, immediately reduce position by 50%
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