The economic three loud bangs, cold winds in the crypto world - when US data exceeds expectations across the board, the 'decreasing position alert' for ETH should sound!
Personal opinion
1. Unemployment claims data (221,000 people):
In simple terms: The number of unemployed Americans is even lower than expected, indicating a very strong job market!
Opinion: The stronger the employment, the more the Fed dares to raise interest rates. Remember last May when the non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations and ETH plummeted 7% in one day? History might repeat itself!
2. Retail sales (+0.6%):
In simple terms: The public is crazily spending, and the economy is 'running a high fever'!
Opinion: The stronger the consumption, the harder it is to kill inflation. ETH, being a 'rate-sensitive asset', bears the brunt - just like when the CPI was released in June, ETH flash crashed by 5% in an hour!
3. Manufacturing Index (15.9):
In simple terms: The factory machines are roaring to life, it's hard for the economy to cool down!
Opinion: All three major data points are in the green = The Fed's 'rate cut dream' is shattered! ETH is not an independent universe; a strong dollar means a weak crypto market, this is an ironclad rule!
Tang Seng's conclusion
ETH will definitely be under pressure in the short term! The logic chain is very simple:
Strong economy → Sticky inflation → High interest rates → Dollar rises → Risk assets fall!
Those shouting that 'ETH resists macro' have probably forgotten the pain of ETH being cut in half from $3,500 during the Fed's interest rate hike cycle in 2022...
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